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I I I I I I I I I I I UUID~b load saturation, area economic changes, demographic changes, and the effects of energy conservation efforts, higher electric rates, the substitution of electricity for scarce fossil fuels and other factors. These updated PSA load classes were then aggregated on a regional basis and compared with regional forecasts. The generating capacity to supply these power requirements consisted of existing generating units and new units scheduled for operation in 1975. Units scheduled to be retired by 1975 were deleted. Generation by individual units were based on historical operation, modified to reflect load changes and the type of new generation scheduled to be added. For the 1985 forecasts, the historical trends of the PSA load segments, both energy and demand, obtained from regression and correlation analysis were extrapolated to 1985. These extrapolations were adjusted to conform with the Series E OBERS population and economic projections and the more fully developed effects of energy conservation, oil and gas shortages, higher electric rates, and pollution abatement requirements. In addition, scheduled major load changes and load saturation were accounted for. These energy requirements were then aggregated on a regional basis and compared with regional and national forecasts, and checked for reasonableness by determining the resulting per capita use. Peak demands were aggregated in a similar fashion and adjusted for load diversity. Generating capacity to supply 1985 forecasted requirements, was determined on a power market area basis, In each area, existing and planned capacities scheduled for operation by that time were totaled by class of service - base load, intermediate and peaking. Scheduled retirements were subtracted. This total mix of capacity was then augmented with selected'unit additions, where necessary, to provide a system with an adequate reserve for anticipated system operating conditions. The units selected to augment the system were determined by analyzing load duration curves and selecting the type of capacity to give an optimum mix, recognizing long lead times for base load capacity and nuclear capacity in particular. Load forecasts for the year 2000 were derived on a power market area basis without the detailed PSA analysis. They were made by the use of selected growth rates to extend the 1985 forecasted values into this period. Selections 'of the growth rates were guided by the Series E OBERS population and economic projections for each area and were influenced by an expected increased use of electricity in the total energy picture as gas and oil assume significantly smaller roles by that date. Additional plants were selected as needed to serve the load in the year 2000. The projections of annual generation were accumulated for the entire nation. Peak loads for the nation would not equal the sum of all the market area peaks, however, because of the diversity of market area peaks. Water use at steam-electric plants located within each ASA is based upon selection of the type of condenser cooling expected to be used at each plant and estimates of water use in each type of plant for the various types of cooling. The type of cooling selected considered type of cooling water supplied, fresh, saline or ground, historical methods of cooling in the general area, site conditions, and the latest EPA guidelines. New plants utilizing fresh surface or ground water were usually assumed to utilize wet cooling towers or cooling ponds. Some of the plants using brackish or saline water for cooling also include wet cooling towers. Once through cooling has been assumed, 111-9