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<br />AUDITING COMMITTEE: <br /> <br />Dallas Cole, California <br />Chairman <br />Wayne Wilson, Utah <br />A. J. Shaver, Nevada <br /> <br />******** <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />Addresses delivered at the conference are summarized herewith: <br /> <br />* * * * * *,* * <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />LONG VIEW OF COLORADO RIVER STORAGE <br /> <br />H. E. Thomas <br />Staff Geologist, U. S. Geological Survey, Salt Lake City, Utah <br /> <br />Natural fluctuations in water supply become of particular concern <br />to water users when the supplies are ma,rkedly less than average. That <br />condition prevails at the present moment within Lake Mead storage. It <br />is anticipated that the spring of 1955 wiH see the lowest lake level since <br />1938 but there is this encouraging factor1to be considered---the usable <br />storage will still exceed eleven million acre feet. <br /> <br />If long-range qualitative predictions of runoff, based upon cyclic <br />climatic fluctuations, could accurately ~e established, then reservoir <br />operation would be extremely simplified~ Our present situation is an <br />excellent illustration. <br /> <br />There is increasing evidence frotn many sources of long-term <br />trends in precipitation" These sources yary from studies of hydrology, <br />through tree ring chronology, to our modern (last half century) <br />precipitation records. These studies are insufficient to establish factual <br />cyclic fluctuations, but there is enough l;'egularity in the variability in <br />precipitation to refute the assumption that precipitation in the Southwest <br />over the years is random. If the principles underlying this seeming <br />regularity can be established, precipita~ion should be predictable for <br />some years in the future. ' <br /> <br />;f <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The need for storing Colorado River water for use in subsequent <br />years when the runoff might otherwise be insufficient for developed <br />requirements has long been recognized. 1 The value. of holdover storage <br />is dem,onstrated right now, for after tw~ years of far less than normal <br />inflow, the reservoir still h/l.s enough w~ter for all the 1955 requirements. <br />When it is taken into consideration that <l- sustained stable water supply <br />may require holdover .storage for periods of ten years or more, it is <br />easy to visualize how reservoir operati~ns, in their most efficient sense, <br />can become problems of major magnitude. <br /> <br />- 2 - <br />