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<br /> <br /> <br />PRESENTATION BY ARTHUR G. CULWORTH <br /> <br />Effect of Future Municipal Development on the Flow of the <br />South Platte River <br /> <br />As it will become apparent in this discussion) the effect of <br />municipal development upon the flow in the South Platte River is <br />dependent upon three things: first, the population; second, the <br />per capita rate of consumption; and third, the source of additional <br />supp1;y. <br /> <br />Let us first discuss the methods in estimating the future <br />levels of population. Insofar as possible, population estinates <br />derived by the Inter-County Regional Planning Commission were used. <br />However, population estimates for all communities outside the Denver <br />metropolitan complex were derived by the Denver Development Office <br />of Region 7, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, using the Ve1z and Eich <br />logistic method which predicts the level of population a community <br />may attain giving recognition to expected fUture economic opportunity. <br /> <br />We have broken the municipal effect on the main stem down by <br />tributary complex or by a main stream complex. On Exhibit 9 we have <br />a listing of the major tributary and main stem complexes and the <br />municipalities included in each complex, the 1952-1957 average <br />population and the 1990 and 2025 population and demand levels for <br />each complex. <br /> <br />The future per capita rate of consumption WaS estimated using <br />a modified Capen's formula which relates rate of consumption as a <br />function of population. <br /> <br />We have considered the five sources from which a muniCipality <br />may derive water to serve additional population. <br /> <br />Tae first two sources, i.e., pumping groundwater and utilizing <br />native stream flows, would be developed by the Main Stem Communities <br />and the Mountain Communi ties, respecti ve1;y. Municipal supplies from <br />these two sources have a depletive effect on the Main stem. <br /> <br />Tae next two sources have no effect on the Main Stem. Taey are <br />water exchange, which we feel Denver would use insofar as possible, <br />and the conversion of agricultural rights which the Clear Creek <br />Communities would use. <br /> <br />The fifth source and most important, since it adds a rather <br />large amount of supplemental water to the basin supp1;y, is <br /> <br />29 <br /> <br />