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<br />I <br /> <br />( <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />First, demand forecasts are uncertain. A plant built to meet <br /> <br />~ <br />c-:e, <br />~ <br />- <br /> <br />projected needs in 1995 or thereafter may well turn out to be <br /> <br />unnecessary. Over the last few years the repeated cancellations <br /> <br />c <br /> <br />of powerplants in the united States due to reduced demand fore- <br /> <br />.. <br /> <br />casts, often requiring the write-off of tens of millions of <br /> <br />dollars, have shown the risk of undue reliance on high, long-term <br /> <br />demand forecasts. <br /> <br />Second, supply options increase over time. Photovoltaic <br /> <br />power, for example, which today seems expensive compared to other <br /> <br />alternatives, may well be cheap in a decade, and emerging energy <br /> <br />storage technologies could provide economical capacity before the <br /> <br />turn of the century. A 1982-84 decision about 1995 resources <br /> <br />would preclude changing future technology which could be finan- <br /> <br />cially and environmentally more attractive. <br /> <br />Of course, demand uncertainty operates in both directions. <br /> <br />Decisions must be made far enough in advance to be able to adjust <br /> <br />to any increase in demand forecasts. <br /> <br />(No such reciprocity exists <br /> <br />on the supply side; technological choices presumably can only grow <br /> <br />with time.) <br /> <br />The proper time period for a need analy~is is thus slightly <br /> <br />longer than the longest implementation period among the various <br /> <br />options available. For Colorado-Ute, that period is 10-12 years-- <br /> <br />ample time to develop Juniper-Cross Mountain, conservation, pur- <br /> <br />chase contracts, cogeneration, gas turbines, other hydroprojects, <br /> <br />or coal plants, which are the alternatives considered below. By <br /> <br />extending the analysis through 1994, any potential need which could <br /> <br />be a basis for licensing Juniper-Cross Mountain in 1982-84 will be <br /> <br />considered. <br />