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<br />., <br /> <br />assumptions, and best engineering judgment were used in developing the <br />documented computations. <br /> <br />The Task 2 draft report does not contend that the SFF, MY, E, and <br /> <br />P sectors are modeled to the same level as the SYM sector. The lack of <br /> <br />data and the relatively small contribution of these sectors to total <br /> <br />demand are sound reasons for not fictitiously modeling these sectors. <br /> <br />The majority of the data base used in developing the water demand <br />forecasts describes conditions of water use from 1974 through 1982 <br />(1977 excepted). In the latter portion of the base period, however, <br />several changes were taking place that would affect future water <br />demands even though they have had minimal effects on past demands. <br />These changes include technological improvements in sanitary water-use <br />fixtures and appliances in commercial and industrial facilities and <br />res idences. <br /> <br />Estimates of per capita water savings due to natural replacement <br />of water-using devices have been developed for use in the Task 4 con- <br />servation analysis. These estimates were adjusted for the presence of <br />water-saving fixtures already incorporated into the use factors to cal- <br />culate actual conservation savings. The less that extensive replace- <br />ment has been, the greater future replacement and conservation savings <br />will be. <br /> <br />According to the Entercom survey of conditions in 1982, 20 percent <br />of the respondents had some water-saving devices in their homes in <br />1982. If it is assumed that all 20 percent have experienced complete <br />replacement of inefficient fixtures and applicances, the resultant <br />demand reductions will represent a lower limit on the effects of this <br />natural replacement process. Per capita conservation for existing <br />homes in the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2035 and for new homes can be <br />calculated using the fractions of households experiencing replacement <br />21 <br />