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<br />, <br /> <br />(~ ,," , , t <br />UU 1'1 't <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />-4- <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />During the course of the probability analysis described above we would <br />examine examples of the application of probability analysis to streamflow data <br />and also examine the literature pertaining to this problem. We would prepare <br />a digest of this literature for the use of the Board and also prepare special <br />reports to the Board on significant applications of the analysis. We call your <br />attention, for example, to the testimony of Dr. Juna B. Leopold, Chief Hydraulics <br />Engineer, USGS, in "Arizona versus California". In his testimony Dr. Leopold <br />presents an analysis based on the use of the normal frequency distribution curve. <br />We believe that it is very important for the staff of the Board to have at its <br />disposal an evaluation of the validity of this approach as well as a comparison <br />between it and alternative techniques of probability analysis. <br /> <br />FACILITIES <br /> <br />The facilities of the Bureau of Economic Research will be available for ths <br /> <br /> <br />carrying out of this proposal. These include the digital computers of the Univ- <br /> <br /> <br />ersity of Colorado's Numerical Analysis Center, as well as hand computers, office <br /> <br /> <br />space and equipment. <br /> <br />PERSONNEL <br /> <br />The probability analysis will be made by Dr. Morris E. Garnsey and Dr. <br />Leslie Fishman, both professors in the Department of Economics of the University <br />of Colorado. Dr. Garnsey is a specialist in Regional Economics. Dr. Fishman is <br />a statistician. They will consult with Mr. Crow and Mr. Macdonald. <br /> <br />Dr. Garnsey will supervise all the phases of the over-all proposal and <br />coordinate the analyses of streamflow, precipitation and atmospheric Changes. <br />