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<br />I <br /> <br />SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />(-) <br /> <br />':_' Economic Pro i ections <br /> <br />-..1 <br />'" In addition to projections developed at the national level by <br />~ the Office of Business Economics (OBE) and the Economic Research <br />Service (ERS) referred to as OBE-ERS projections, three alternative <br />levels were developed by State-Federal participants in the regional <br />study. The alternative levels of development were referred to as the <br />regional interpretation of OBE-ERS projections; States' alternative at <br />6.5 million acre-feet of water depletions; and States' alternative at <br />8.16 million acre-feet. <br /> <br />The OBE-ERS projections comprise a nationally-interregionally <br />consistent set of projections which equates national demand with <br />supply and provides a first approach to regional projections based <br />on historic trends in interregional production relationships. These <br />projections for the Region and Resource Planning Areas were inter- <br />preted and disaggregated by the Economics Work Group and projections <br />of total economic activity were developed for the Green River, Upper <br />Main Stem and San Juan-Colorado Subregions. <br /> <br />Population in the Upper Colorado Region was projected to increase <br />from 336,900 in 1965 to 615,900 in 2020 under OBE-ERS projections. <br />This reflects an overall annual growth rate of 1.1 percent during the <br />projection period. The annual ra~e varied from 1.7 percent in the <br />San Juan-Colorado to 0.8 percent for both the Green River and Upper <br />Main Stem Subregions. <br /> <br />Total employment, essential to estimating the level of future <br />economic activity was projected to increase from 111,390 in 1965 to <br />233,000 by 2020--an annual growth rate of 1.3 percent. This is <br />slightly higher than the annual rate of population growth due to the <br />expected increase in the ratio of employment to population during the <br />period 1965 to 2020. <br /> <br />Personal income, which accounts for a large share of the Region's <br />gross product, was projected to increase from $664 million in 1965 <br />to $6.9 billion by the year 2020. This represents an annual growth <br />rate of 4.3 percent for the' Region--ranging from 3.6 percent in the <br />Upper Main Stem to 5.2 percent in the San Juan-Colorado Subregion. <br /> <br />the major resource-oriented industries include minerals--mining <br />and processing; agriculture; recreation and tourism--reflected in <br />retail trade and services; and manufacturing. Agriculture and minerals <br />were projected to decline in relative importance to total industrial <br />output but to continue as important sources of basic income in the <br />Region. In contrast, recreation and manufacturing were projected to <br />increase their relative contributions to industrial output during the <br /> <br />iii <br /> <br />