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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />0J22~6 <br /> <br />III -- STUDY DESIGN AND SCOPE OF ANALYSIS <br />As cited in the introductory section, certain generalized <br />premises and assumptions originally guided the design of the High <br />Plains Ogallala Aquifer Area Study and the Plan of Study adopted by <br />the six States of the High Plains Study Council as well. These <br />generalizations, dating from 1976 and based upon brief exposure <br />to the area, were that the groundwater supply throughout the region <br />was "rapidly declining" and that this and rising energy costs would <br />force farmers to "return irrigated land to dryland farming." This <br />in turn was expected to "jeopardize farm suppliers....and have <br />negative effects on the feedlots and meat processors," and that <br />the "entire economic and social base... .will be threatened by rapid <br />decline in irrigated agriculture." The Study Design was strongly <br />conditioned by these generalizations, including one element <br />calling for assessment of the impacts of a transition back to a <br />dryland farming economy. <br />Within this setting, the General Contractor team initially <br />framed Study Element B-9, Dryland Farming assessment, (Interim <br />Report, January 15, 1979) to measure differing patterns of agri- <br />cultural, economic and social/demographic activities"... in irri- <br />gated vs. non-irrigated areas of the High Plains." Under the <br />"rapid decline" assumption, one approach was a comparative analysis <br />of various agricultural, economic and social "indicators" or <br />measures of development, change, well-being, etc., in areas with <br />substantial irrigation farming versus adjacent areas without such <br /> <br />I II-l <br /> <br />Arthur D Little Inc <br />