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<br />Summary of Major Findings 7
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<br />damages based on lO-year average salinity for
<br />both the 500 mgIL and 334 mgIL bases for
<br />agriculture, households, utilities, industries,
<br />policy, and the total. These annual costs may
<br />rise significantly in future years because each of
<br />several factors could lead to higher damages due
<br />to increasing salinity levels; growth in popula-
<br />tion; and growth in the rate of industrial develop-
<br />ment. This is a substantial cost, falling as it does
<br />on households, farmers, and industry in the
<br />Lower Colorado River region.
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<br />Other Issues
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<br />For most people salinity has no known
<br />bealth effect and may be beneficial inasmuch as
<br />drinking hard water appears to reduce hyperten-
<br />sion to some degree. It is known that saline
<br />water, when accompanied by hardness (as is
<br />Colorado River water), can form a protective
<br />scale on water pipes, reducing corrosion and the
<br />uptake of potentially toxic metals, such as lead.
<br />
<br />The secondary or indirect effects of salinity
<br />may positively affect economies in other parts of
<br />the country as agriculture or manufacturing
<br />shifts locations from the Lower Colorado River
<br />Basin. However, most of the damage effects will
<br />be shifts of expenditures in the economic sec-
<br />tors, e,g" households or industry, affected by
<br />salinity, Without better knowledge of income
<br />and budget constraints and of price elasticities -
<br />the effects are unclear,
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<br />It is known, however. that detrimental
<br />salinity effects occur in the agriculture of north-
<br />ern Mexico, thus creating local economic
<br />problems and international political impacts.
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<br />The Computer Program
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<br />The user-friendly computer program is
<br />designed to run on an IBM-compatible PC, with
<br />or without graphics features. It calculates four
<br />types of damages - agricultural, household,
<br />utility, and industrial - and provides these
<br />estimates in disaggregated or summary form for
<br />the entire Lower Basin, Damage estimates can
<br />be displayed and printed either in graphic or
<br />tabular form.
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<br />The program is menu driven, with internal
<br />instructions for updating input data and for run-
<br />ning the program. The user sbould note,
<br />however, that while the program is easy to use, it
<br />produces damage estimates that are only as
<br />accurate as the data within it. These data
<br />represent the best efforts of the study team
<br />within the severe resource limitations of this
<br />study and are, at best, incompletely refined,
<br />
<br />By running the program repetitively for
<br />those items whose value is uncertain, a range of
<br />salinity damage estimates will be provided that
<br />will more accurately reflect the limitations of the
<br />data. As more accurate data are developed, the
<br />results of the computer program will become
<br />increasingly refined.
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<br />Strengths, Weaknesses,
<br />Recommendations
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<br />As has been repeatedly emphasized
<br />throughout this report, a computer model (or
<br />even manual analysis) is only as good as the data
<br />that goes into it. Even so, the damage estimates
<br />presented here are believed to be substantially
<br />more accurate, comprehensive, and useful in
<br />planning salinity control measures than previous
<br />estimates have been.
<br />
<br />Several commenters suggested that the crop
<br />yield and service life data analyses would be im-
<br />proved if uncertainty analyses were included. I n-
<br />stead of a single set of data values covering a
<br />range of TDS, a probability distribution of the
<br />results would be produced, Thus, crop damages
<br />or household damages could be accompanied by
<br />a confidence level or standard deviation value
<br />that would better renect the range of data into
<br />the statement of final damages, i.e. $300 million
<br />per year :t $37 million,
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<br />The authors believe a thorough review of pre-
<br />vious studies has been undertaken and presented
<br />in one study. Further, research programs under-
<br />taken by trade associations and manufacturers
<br />have been discovered and included in the anal-
<br />ysis. Interest in possible future study by various
<br />industry groups has been stimulated that will
<br />directly improve both the calculation and attri-
<br />bution of damage from saline water (i.e., Gas
<br />Research Institute on water heaters and the
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