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OOllll13 being used as an example. The peak of construction is in Year 5, with 2,000 construction workers and 7,500 added population (derived from Figure 2). There will be a sharp drop to Year 8, with about 800 workers and an added population of 3,400. By Year la, with full operations, there will still be 800 workers, but the added population will have grown to 4,739 (derived from Figure 3). 6. The impacts demonstrated above assume that only one project will be built. But in many areas, there will be multiple projects, and these will have cumulative effects on employment and population. If several projects are built at the same time, with nothing to follow, the impact on the community can be devastating. If the timing of the projects can be spaced out evenly, impacts of both growth and decline will be less severe. 7. Impacts can be more positive if jobs are held by local residents rather than newcomers. Demands for additional housing and services are greatly reduced. New construction jobs can help raise incomes and increase job skills. However, the ability to hire local residents varies, depending on the type of project, size of community and skills available. Dramatic projects often attract a large number of persons in search of work. In Whatcom County, Washington, the unem. ployment rate rose from 6 per cent to 9 per cent during construction of an oil refinery. In Alaska, the rate has risen because of large numbers of workers hoping to find work on the pipeline. The rate in Fairbanks now exceeds 11 per cent. 8. The labor force size, timing and hiring patterns vary by type of project and location. Some impact of offshore oil and gas exploration and drilling will occur in already urbanized and industrialized areas, where impacts wjJJ be minor compared to types of projects more often located in rural settings. B, PREDICTION OF IMPACTS Most communities rely on energy company estimates of the size and timing of projects and anticipated num- bers of employees. In some cases, these corporate estimates are not made public early enough to permit sound public planning. Even publicly-announced estimates can change quickly in the volatile process of energy project development. For example, at Niggs Bay, Scotland, the company estimated 600 workers for a proposed platform fabrication facility. Within three years the work force had peaked at over 3,000.13 The announcements for the Jim Bridger Power Plant made in 1971 projected a work force of somewhere between 500 and 1,500. The Sweetwater County, Figure 3 EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION ADDED BY OPERATIONS x 3.7 per Family 2438 116 x 40% Family "400 16S. '''91e 20% Local Residents 465 Ratio of Support Workers to Operating x 3.7 per Family 1720 Total Population Added 4739 6