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-'~ Arizona's Growth - Eldridge p. B I\,) l-" -..J N urban growth in both Ari zona and Colorado, tota I i rri gated acreage has i n- creased. The numbers of acres do not reveal the quality of production possi- ble on them, but the machinery and fertilizers available from the cities help make even marginal lands become productive, and the spread of better transpor- tation and the growth of consumer markets makes farming of once distant and marginal lands feasible. Urban growth in some respects helps agriculture grow. It also seems self-evident that growing cities mean growing demands for raw water supply. It does, of course, but not at quite the rates one might expect. Cities in our states use 5 to 7% of the water; agriculture uses the rest. Cities could double their use and not unduly strain the ability of agricultural users to supply that water from existing supplies by more efficient irrigation methods, while maintaining productivity levels. Estimates vary, but on-farm efficiencies could reduce farm consumption by a fourth or more. The problem is that this in- creased efficiency costs money to achieve, and there are almost no incentives in our water laws to encourage efficient use. So the question of raw supply quickly becomes an an economic and legal reform question. Furthermore, the great bulk of the water used in the home returns to the rivers, after treatment, for reuse down- stream by farms and other cities. When cities convert agricultural water to urban use, more of that water returns to the river than when it was used for irrigation. These seven questions -- one for each state in the Basin -- will occupy experts on growth in the Colorado River Basin to the year 2000. The biggest question, in my view, is how the entire Basin is perceived by our fellow citizens in the East. I believe that there has been a fundamental shift of opinion, away from seeing the West as a new frontier deserving of special financial help, and towards the view that we are a favored area of the country, with lower unemployment, higher incomes, greater natural resources, and a better future. Many eastern states would love to have Arizona's growth problems! A shrinking economy is even harder to handle. The significance of this shift of opinion is found in the Congress, where the East outvotes us ten to one, and where subsidies, for water projects in the West have to be defended. The East has experienced spot water shortages, and many ancient pipe lines and reservoirs need expensive repairs. They want water project subsidies too, making any federal move in that direction doubly expensive. Can we expect, as we look toward the Southwest's growth to the year 2000, continuing federal subsidies for our water projects? I hope that I don't know the answer, but I'm rather afraid that I do. . ;~",__L_,;\,--:_:....-_'. * * * * * * * *