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ro ..... --.J ..... ~n .::;:' Arizona's Growth - Eldridge p. 7 This question is particularly difficult for irrigated agriculture, because of the large difference in its ability to pay that results from the comparatively low dollar return from its use of water. The problem will be particularly dif- ficult for water-intensive, low value crops like alfalfa, the staple that many of our Western livestock ranchers depend upon. For irrigated agriculture in general, it takes over 4,000 gallons of water to produce $1 of output. Metal mining needs just 58 gallons to produce $1 of output, petroleum refining only g gallons, elec- tronics 2 gallons and textiles 1 gallon! It is obvious that municipal and in- dustrial water users can afford to pay far more for developing water than agri- culture. The buying power of cities is illustrated by the forecast that by 2000, the City of Denver will have bough~ and constructed diversion systems that will take 50% of the I:',~ter out of the former agri cultural SUlllllit counties to its West in the Colorado River Basin. To keep the picture somewhat balanced, we should notice that the return flow from urban use helps water the farms to the East in the Missouri River Basin. It may be that M&I financed water projects during the next 20 years will indirectly improve total water supplies available for irrigated agriculture. But in up-stream areas away from urban centers, the problem will probably get worse rather than better. Will those in the livestock business who are dependent on these upland grazing areas be able to grow with the times? I fear that they will not. High water costs will reduce their profits in a market kept low by livestock supplied from water rich areas where producers don't have to recover high water costs. There is more than regional price competition. As water becomes more expensive, it tends to go towards higher value crops. Onions, for example, are also water- intensive, but they return a higher income per gallon used. There is a limit to how many onions the country can absorb, at least I hope there is, so alfalfa is not going to be supplanted very soon by onion fields, but the problem is still evident. Higher priced water may induce quite a lot of crop shifting to higher value crops, in order to stay in business. If hay and alfalfa production drops significantly in semi-arid areas with sparse grazing resources, what happens to the livestock industry? I don't know what lies ahead, but I suspect that higher water prices will lead to many changes in traditional Western economic sectors. 7. We don't know what the Southwestern water supplies. good neighboring agricultural water from agricultural use. demands will be from sunbelt population growth on It seems self-evident that urban sprawl covers up land, reducing acreage in production and taking In point of fact, in the last decade of rapid .""<-"'-;.:..- ,-