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<br />ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES AND INTER-STRATEGY COMPARISONS <br /> <br />To carry out the Congressional directives and to fulfill the High Plains <br />Study Council objectives, two incremental management strategies to reduce <br />water demands in the Region and three strategies to increase regional or <br />subregional water supplies were formulated. These water demand and supply <br />management strategies were evaluated in comparison to prOjected "Baseline" <br />conditions, i.e., the continuation of present trends in use of Ogallala Aquifer <br />water with no new public policies or programs to effect greater water conser- <br />vation or to increase supplies. The probable future of the energy sector and <br />the effect on the High Plains regional and subregional economies was analyzed <br />including projections of future energy prices. The potential for future <br />nonagricultural development in sustaining the regional economy was assessed. <br /> <br />The Framework for Impact Assessment <br /> <br />The water management strategies analyzed in the Study were: <br /> <br />BASELINE: Continuation of current local, state and <br />federal policies and trends; no new state or federal <br />programs (previ ous reference to "agri cultural <br />management" was deleted). <br /> <br />Under the Basel i ne condit ion, it was assumed that state and federa 1 <br />governments would make no new efforts to reduce demands on the Aquifer or to <br />augment the supply in the foreseeable future, i.e., nothing purposeful by way <br />of new or additional public actions. Rather, it was assumed that current <br />(1980) trends in pub 1 i c sector and pri vate sector water demand and supply <br />management would continue. For example, if state or local actions were in <br />progress to all evi ate overdrafts on the ground water, thei r outcomes or <br />impacts would be reflected in the Baseline. Similarly, current trends in <br />crop improvements, crop yields, cropping patterns, and adoption of proven <br />techno 1 ogi ca 1 improvements in water and ag ri cultura 1 management pract ices <br />by farmers faced by increased pumping or other costs were reflected in the <br />Baseline projections, as these would be dictated by rational and normal <br />behavior of the individual farmer operating in a relatively free market. <br /> <br />8 <br />