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<br />UJ3121 <br />agencies to reserve water for future purposes. Colorado law recognizes <br />"conditional" water rights which an applicant may obtain now for in- <br />tended future use. 56 To maintain such rights, "due diligence" toward <br />applying that water to a beneficial use must be demonstrated to the <br />water court every four years by exhibiting studies, investments, or <br />other concrete actions. There has been a shift toward stricter interpre- <br />tation of due diligence in recent years. In the Colorado River Basin, <br />most conditional rights have been established by prospective export- <br />ers, especially cities. Perhaps a more common way of reserving water <br />for future use is to acquire existing water rights and leave that water in <br />its current use until needed for new activities. 57 <br />Though forecasted future activities and their net benefits are un- <br />certain, these foregone net benefits associated with the future loss of <br />water should be considered in assessing an out-of-basin transfer. <br />The analysis of instream uses [(2) above] is much the same, in <br />that there may be direct curtailment of current instream values and <br />further losses of future instream values. There is likely to be immedi- <br />ate loss of some instream values; on smaller streams, for example, <br />transfers may make it more difficult for towns and industries to meet <br />ambient water quality standards, forcing them to undertake higher <br />levels of waste treatment. <br />Regarding (3), there are likely to be at least temporary losses of <br />income in activities linked to the major water-using or water-based <br />sectors. If a direct water-using activity such as irrigated agriculture is <br />curtailed, certain "backward linked" industries like farm equipment <br />and chemical suppliers and certain "forward linked" industries like <br />livestock, food processing, and meat packing will find the demand for <br />their services reduced, with consequent reductions in their net in- <br />comes. Some of the human and other resources consequently left un- <br />employed will find new employment, but for those left unemployed <br />over various time intervals, the income losses are attributable to the <br />transfer. These income losses can be estimated subject to substantial <br />uncertainty. '8 <br />Finally, some indirect losses [(4) above] may occur to "society at <br />large" in the basin of origin through under-utilization of public facili- <br />ties, decline in the tax base, reduction in quality of public services, and <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />i <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />56. For a recent discussion, see Hallford, Dcvelopmcnts in Conditional Water Rights Law. 14 <br />COLO. LAW. 353 (1985). <br />57. For a discussion of the inefficiencies of this system see Williams. The RequircmclJl of Benefi- <br />cia/ Use as a Cause of WaSle in Water Resource Development, 23 NAT. RESOURCES J. 7 (198.:\). <br />58. For a method of calculating such income losses, see C. HOWE & K. EASTER, supra note 53, <br />ch.4. <br />