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Water Management Study: Upper Rio Grande Basin unforeseen crises that can cause abrupt institutional change will increase. Nobody can seriously believe, for example, that the political system will long tolerate using vast amounts of water on low-value crops if drought or other events cause high-value water uses of the metropolitan areas in the middle and southern end of the Basin to go unmet. Conversely, support for instream flows, stronger connections between the river and its floodplain, and a more natural hydrograph is likely to plummet if major flooding occurs. Further- more, residents of Albuquerque cannot expect much sympathy for the pain they endure while reducing per capita water consumption as long as their consumption exceeds levels in similar communities. ~:_: In short, growing competition is likely to destablilize institutions that do not accommodate it. It is impossible to say now just how all this will play out, for much will depend on problematic variables, such as climate and political leadership. Many believe that major challenges and changes will materialize if resource-conservation groups find they have sufficient political muscle and scientific ammunition to significantly delay or modifY major construction projects, such as El Paso's planned pipelines. Another test will occur as major federal activities, including the IBWC's operations in the southern Basin and the CoE's and BuRec's programs in the middle Basin are subjected to extensive review of their environmental impacts. t.: "'. "~ .:, l~ ;"~ ,', Despite the outlook for growing pressures for stronger cooperation, at this time there is no consensus in the Basin supporting the establishment of a Basin-wide commission for addressing the Basin's problems. Opposition comes from many sides. It is especially strong, for example, among those who currently have the greatest control over the Basin's water and related resources, such as irrigation interests in Colorado's largely rural and agricultural portion of the Basin. Irrigators in Colorado have first access to almost all, and consume about 600,000 afofthe approximately 1,060,000 af of surface water generated in Colorado's portion of the Basin in a typical year. Understandably, many residents of Colorado, seeing that most of the new demands for water and related resources come from urban, nonagricultural sources further south, anticipate that a new Basin-wide commission would seek to limit their access and use of water. They typically label water in excess of Compact obligations that passes out of the state as a "waste." They see no advantage in participating in a Basin-wide commission, insofar as they believe that the Rio Grande Compact protects their access to and control over the water. i;'- f-~ ;:{ ::: ~" i.. r. (i r 3 " ,.. e' ,'..I v,_,.J 124