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<br /> <br />o <br />"."::l <br />(7') <br />eo <br /><<) <br />~ <br /> <br />SUMMARY <br /> <br /> <br />OBE-ERS Base and Projections <br /> <br />This appendix to the Main Report, Great Basin Region Framework <br />Study, provides economic data and analysis pertaining to the Region's <br />base period, a limited amount of historic economic data and projec. <br />tions of economic activity for future time frames 1980, 2000 and 2020. <br /> <br />The projections are often referred to as the OBE-ERS projections. <br />This designation has reference to a set of economic forecasts prepared <br />by the Office of Business Economics, Department of Commerce and the <br />Economic Research Service, Department of Agriculture. The OBE-ERS <br />projections represent a national economy where production is in balance <br />with estimated future demand, Foreign trade impacts were also consider- <br />ed. <br /> <br />The estimated 1965 population of the Great Basin Region was 1.15 <br />million, an increase of III percent over the Region's reported 1930 <br />population of 545,000. This represents a growth rate above that for <br />the United States as a whole, but below that of the Western States <br />collectively. <br /> <br />Great Basin regional population is projected to increase from <br />1.15 million in 1965 to 3.19 million in 2020, a projected annual rate <br />of 1,9 percent compared to the OBE-ERS national projected annual <br />growth rate of 1.3 percent. All subregions except the Sevier Lake <br />Subregion are projected to have population increases. The Bear River <br />Subregion is projected to experience an absolute increase in number <br />of people but its share of regional population will decrease, In <br />1965 the three eastern subregions of the Region contained 81 percent <br />of the Region's inhabitants, This relationship is not projected to <br />change significantly. In the OBE-ERS 2020 projections 80 percent of <br />the Region's inhabitants would reside in the eastern three subregions. <br /> <br />Total employment for the Region increased 140 percent between the <br />years 1940-1965. The growth in employment throughout the period was <br />at a faster rate than the growth in the Region's population, <br /> <br />In the OBE-ERS projection series, employment in the Region is <br />projected to increase from 416,800 in 1965 to 1,278,800 in 2020, an <br />average annual compound growth rate of 2,0 percent, <br /> <br /> <br />Employment in the tertiary industries is projected to increase <br />at a faster rate than primary and secondary industry employment. Agri- <br />culture employment is projected to continue its long-term decline, both <br /> <br />i <br />