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(1275 . River bottom ecology dependent on year round groundwater return flows to the stream bed, and the histol ic ,d"pnce of greater flows through the reach below the head gates of the Ft. Lyon and Ft. Lyon Storage canals. TASK 4 - DescriDtion and Evaluation of Alternatives The Evaluation Process. Alternatives to total dry-up of that Ft. Lyon service area are identified in the -following sections. Alternatives will be structured and quantified using mass balance of the Ft. Lyon water resources and input-output economic analysis described in Task 38. Alternatives will be evaluated using a matrix methodology. The matrix variables include: ~~ 7' the quantities of waters in acre-feet the use(s) of such waters the relevant impacts within the social, economic and environmental categories (described in Task 38 and below) suggested mitigation measures for adverse impacts benefits and costs conclusions as to financial, legal and technical (engineering) feasibility. Methodology to Establish Baseline for Measuring Impacts. An economic and social baseline of the impact area will be developed from a combination of primary and secondary research sources. Economic trends and current data on economic activity will be gathered from various state, county, local, and federal agencies. This will include agricultural production, wholesale and retail trade by sector, governmental finance (subdivided by county, towns and cities, school districts and other special districts), employment by sector, amount of transfer payments into/from the impact area, real estate values, and sales, propeny, income and excise tax collections. An economic multiplier will be detennined for the impact area. Existing Conditions will be taken from Task 38. This baseline will :i ( ~ illustrate the existing condition of the impact area, and will be used to define the changes occurring oJ<, '-'.>- J. from each of the alternatives. Another type of baseline -- a "transfer ~<;Jine" -. will reflect.r...; ('::Y..f- I . the economic and sociological changes that have occurred from each o~ water transfers out G ~ ^q~ ,~~ of the Arkansas Valley. The transfer impact baseiine can be adapted to reflect the changes expected ',- {)lj1'J' ~/ from a proposed alternative, from the existing condition baseline. ~~~':~~~ ~I r:t .l ' ,\ \\~ \" (jrt]J 1:/ Methodology to Measure Economic/Social Impacts of Alternative Actions. Fo e ch e Jternatives , described later in this section, various data will be gathered as a basis for measuring its economic and I social impact. These will include such data as are appropriate to the alternative, for example: . The acreage of agricultural land removed from (or added to) production, by county . Change in quantity, and value, of crop production, by county . Amounts of transfer payments, e.g., for sale of water rights, (a) from outside or (b) from within the impact area . Number of water right holders (households) directly affected . Number of fann workers (households) directly affected 14