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<br />The expansion of shale oil production should continue <br />after 1975, ultimately reaching several million barrels <br />per day. It must not be implied that 1,250,000 BID is the <br /> <br />maximum production rate the industry will attain. <br /> <br />Water Reauirements <br />Water requirements for shale oil production will be <br /> <br />small until 1970, but will reach about 250,000 acre-feet <br /> <br />per year by 1975. The tabulation below presents estimated <br /> <br />water usage attributable to shale oil production, includ- <br /> <br /> <br />ing municipal use. A recommended minimum firm water sup- <br /> <br />ply capability for shale through 1975 also is given. <br /> <br />OIL SHALE WATER REQUIREMENTS <br />Acre-feet per year <br /> <br /> 1960 1965 1970 1975 <br />Diverted Negligible 1300 27,000 252,000 <br />Returned 550 11,000 93,000 <br />Consumed 750 16,000 159,000 <br />Supply Capability 2500 5000 40.000 250.000 <br /> <br />Development Pattern <br />Because of the time needed to design and build the <br />first production facility, it is doubtful that a shale <br />industry can begin much earlier than predicted. A delay <br /> <br />is possible, however, in the event that petroleum continues <br />to be available in ample supply. Even 50, we believe the <br />development pattern of the industry, once started, will be <br />the same - first, prototype production followed by moderate <br />expansion and finally, significant production quantities. <br /> <br />-2- <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />