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<br />002937 <br /> <br />-16 <br /> <br />~i~~ <br />..~~_....' . <br /> <br />~it!/ <br /> <br />:';';;-~:.-'~' <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />~:}:;i~:.":~. <br />!;l~!; <br />I <br /> <br />~,'.~-:._- ,-: " <br /> <br />Forestry Projections l! <br /> <br />The projections of demand for major timber products shown in the <br /> <br />OBERS report were prepared by the Forest Service. These projections <br /> <br />indicate the volume of timber products that would b~ consumed under <br /> <br />the specified or implied assumptions sbout demand determinants, such <br /> <br />as population, economic activity, institutional changes, and prices <br /> <br />of timber products relative to the general price level and the prices <br /> <br />of competing materials. <br /> <br />The basic assumptions on population growth and economic activity <br /> <br />were the same as those used by OBE. Because the timber demand pro- <br /> <br />jections were based on prospective growth in the major timber markets; <br /> <br />it was necessary to go beyond these basic assumptions and study pro- <br /> <br />spective growth trends in several sectors of the economy. in considerable <br /> <br />detail. For example, as a part of the base for projecting timber <br /> <br />products demand in residential construction, the market for about a <br /> <br />third of the lumber and plywood produced, the Forest Service developed <br /> <br />a computer model for projecting longrun demands for housing by type of unit <br /> <br />and region. This model incorporates the major determinants of housing <br /> <br />demand--population growth, age distribution of the population; and <br /> <br /> <br />income levels--into a single systematic frame work. This research is <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />in the process of publication, but we would be glad to make. it available <br /> <br />It~i <br />I <br /> <br /> <br />.. <br />i}J~}1~~; <br />HV~~(~ <br />..-::...."...,:;.. <br />~;~---~.... .. <br />.......;.. <br />:~~~tt'-.- <br /> <br />in draft form to anyone in the various water resource regions who is <br /> <br />concerned with developing projections of housing demand by type of unit <br />, <br /> <br />and subregion. <br /> <br />l! Prepared by Dwight Hair, Washington Office of the Forest Service, <br />for presentation at the regional meetings on OBERS projections. <br /> <br />.....'" -:.':C~ <br /> <br />~~ '.- . <br />"';/":~'-<'-' <br /> <br />:~~;~;)::::::. <br />