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<br />002918 <br /> <br />;~;;; <br />~f~ <br />~;:~?i <br />S'~-J.:~:'-'"~: <br />~k~~~'~; <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />I <br />~)1>.; <br />~)J:~~~ <br />~;~ <br />~i:t:.l <br />~~ <br />I <br /> <br />2. Input-Output <br />Was not input-output considered too lightly fot both projec- <br />tions and impact analysis? What about 1-0 models developed <br />by Harvard? <br /> <br />Input-output is a valuable analytical tool when applicable <br />tables are available. However, when not readily available, <br />1-0 tables are costly to construct. <br /> <br />While a good analytical tool, 1-0 is not an especially good <br />projection tool. Both the final demand and the technical co- <br />efficientsmust be projected exogenously. <br /> <br />Harvard developed 1-0 tables are becoming available for <br />44 state combinations. Tables have been constructed for 1947, <br />1958 and 196.3 with projected tables. for 1970 and 1980. . Jack <br />Fawcett Associates have estimated interregional trade flows <br />from secondary sources and have projected them tb 1970 and <br />1980. When we have had an opportunity to evaluate this work <br />we may want to compare the results of the two systems. How- <br />ever, we will not use 1-0 for making projections for the Eco- <br />nomic Areas for the reasons mentioned above. <br /> <br />... <br />'."_> _"t" <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />'Siim.t <br />~~ <br />~;-~~ <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />:~tt:~~~ <br />i;?;:~~:; <br />i~!~%b!;,t~~!i~'~[!~ti!~~~~W~'~~;";~~t'~!~52;'~t~~~~!~I~J.~ii;~~~;;t:~rr~;f8~~V1J!!~~%{~~~'~~?1;~~5#~~~f!;rll~t~~i~~]~~~~!;i!~ <br /> <br />The Harvard tables cannot be used for impact analysis. <br />They cannot be inverted because of the magnitude of the data <br />matrices. <br /> <br /> <br />3. Trend Modification <br />To what extent were the historic trends modified in the basic <br />industry projections? In very few cases where resources are <br />being depleted or some major industry has been closed or added. <br />These instances can be. d~cumented. . <br /> <br />4. Historical Period Used <br />A comment was made that the report does not indicate the <br />historical periods used in the extrapolation of trends. The <br />historical data are published in the report. The length of the <br />data series is different for different industries. The industry <br />analysts made the determination as to the most relevant histori- <br />cal period for projection within the limits of the available data. <br /> <br />- 14 - <br />