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33 locate in the basin and use that water. But rights to that water, under New Mexico law, would have junior priorities. In many years, the Navajo prior claim to NIIP water would cut into deliveries to junior users; in some years, full delivery to NIIP would preclude any delivery to junior users. Uncertainty such as this was an effective deterrent to industry locating in the basin, so the tribe believed it necessary to give up its prior claim to NllP water and to agree to share shortages ratably in the basin. The implication for quantification of this rationale for sharing shortages is this: for the 112,000 acre-feet to have a junior claim, it could not, by definition, be Indian water with a Winters priority. Thus the Navajo must have assumed that the M&I water was not theirs. Section 12(a) limits all Indian claims to New Mexico's allocation, and there was no reference to other water within the allocation that the tribe might use in the future.87 Thus by the logic of the rationale for it, the tribe's agreement to share shortages limited its claim to the NIIP allocation. But this is not a satisfactory conclusion, for several reasons. For the shortage-sharing provision to amount to quantification, it is necessary to refer widely to state law and external facts about water allocation and supply in New Mexico. But going so far overoptimistic, making estimates of future uses, industrial or otherwise, fantasy. But at the time that NllP was under discussion, few people had admitted that the flow of the Colorado was lower than expected in 1922. 87The only water discussed for potential Navajo benefit, other than NIIP water, was this M&I water. The 1958 Senate Report spoke of "mineral and industrial developments on Navajo land," Sen. Re.p. No. 2198. ~ note 77 at 86, and Paul Jones spoke of solving the Navajo unemployment problem permanently with large-scale industrial development in New Mexico. Senate Hearin~ 1958..mm note 17 at 99. Other uses were earmarked by New Mexico for non-Indian uses. & l:Iouse Hearine 1960..mm note 41 at 78 and Senate Hearini 1961..swml note 17 at 49.