Laserfiche WebLink
<br />10. <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />, <br />.. <br /> <br />3770 <br /> <br />RUEDI DAM AND RESERVOIR, COLO. <br /> <br />79 <br /> <br />There are llmple resel'\'es of oil shale for several times the produc- <br />tion mte of 1,250,000 barrels per day. In a study for the Corps of <br />Engineers (17), Fordl Bacon, &. Dll.vis cite n. figure of 5,H50,OOO baJ;'- <br />l'e.Js pel' day as n. possible, production rate based on n.n~ilab.le.reserves <br />in Colorado alone. This level could be mn.int:lined for a ITIIllUnum. of <br />40 years. Smaller rn.tes of prodnction would, of course, extend t.he <br />life of the deposit. . <br />There seems no Jike,jihoocl t.hat. the demand for shale 011. once <br />established, will diminish. St.uclents of onr economy are unanimous <br />in the belief that U.S. eneJ'gy needs, including liquid fuels, will con- <br />t.inue to grow for the foreseeable future.. Atomic energy is not a. <br />compet.itor for most uses of petroleum. It seems reasonable to ex- <br />pect that shale oil production will cont.inue to increase us domestic <br />pe.trolemn production dec-lines unt.il some ec.onomic or physic.allimita.- <br />tion is reached. Answering the availability of an nde<]uate ""tel' <br />suppJy we foresee not,hing to pre\'ent slwle oil proouction re_nching <br />several million barrels per da.y. <br /> <br />OIL SHALE INDUSTRY DE\'ELOl'MENT PATl'ERN <br /> <br />It, is belie.\'ed that t,he development of an oil shale industry will pro- <br />e""d in fonr distinct phases. This pattern probably will be followed <br />regardless of when the industry stnrts. The,., phases a,re as follo"s: <br /> <br />Phase I. Experimental. <br />Phase II. Prototype. <br />Phase III. Prima.ry Expansion. <br />Phase IV. SemndalJ' Expansion. <br /> <br />Phase I. Experimental <br />The experiment.al phase st.nrted about 15 years ago ilnd is no\\' in <br />its final stages. During this period satisfactory methcxls for each <br />step in the production of shale fuels ha,'e been developed. Some <br />additionn.l experim'ental work is being- done now, but. the technology <br />essentiaJly is ma.rking time, Little aduit.iunal experimentation is nec- <br />essary before building a prototype commercial plant. <br />Phase I might he tenned the preprototype phase, which will con- <br />tinue until the need for beginning commel'(~ial shale oil prodnet.ion <br />becomes evident. to oil company management. <br /> <br />Pllll-<e ff. Prototype <br />The prototype phase invoh'es building the first eOlllmel'ewl scale <br />plant (or plants). This might a.lso be termed the pioneer pha;;e. <br />Since the technology to be used is lie\\", many significant improve- <br />ments nl'e to he expected as it result of this first. experience at fnB-scale <br />product.ion. This nlso is t.he period of maximulll tedlllologica.l ris.k. <br />The object.ive of the prototype phas{~ it; not to pro(luce lal'g'e qnantit.ies <br />of oil, but to firmly establish the technology anel ocononiics of shale <br />fuels production before makin.~ t.he large invest.ment required for <br />shale oil t.o contribute sig-:nifieUlltIy toour oil Eiupply. <br />To kee.p the inyestment. for phase II to a. minimwn, the pl'oduct <br />of the firstplant(s) will be marketed insofar as possible by existing <br />tl'nnsportatlOll systems. (Unfoli.Ulhltely, the loeal m:tl'ket l::UHlot <br />absorb t.he output, of even the sn",nest prototype plant.) Studies <br />ha.ve shown that 2&,000 barrels per day of sbale oil can he. fairly <br /> <br />