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78 3769 RUED! DAM AND RESERVOIR, COLO. diesel, and other fuels equivalent to the highest quality products manufactured from petroleum. E cOrlOmiC8 Many stateme,uts have been made regarding the competitive position of shale oil products when p~oduced commercially. All are. based on estimates of cost, usually der,,-ed from pllot-p]ant data. Smce shale oil is not produced commercially in this country, there is a certa.m degree of uncertrr.int.y in appraising its economic attractiveness. Careful engineering stndies of the large-scale application of the ne" methods de,'e]oped for oil shale utilization indicate that shale oil ma)' cost no more, and perhaps less, than new domestic petroleum. It is estimated thnt crude shale oil could be produced I1nd sold profit- "bly for 11 wellhel1d price of no more than $2.50 per bl1rrel. By com- parison, the posted prices of Rocky Mountain area crude oils range from $1.81 to $3.10 per barrel. Quality and location determines the price level for a specIfic crude oil. The investment for shale oil production facilities of significant out. put is sizable. A 25,000-barrel-per-day plant may cost from $30 mil- lion to $50 million depending on location, retorting process se]ect"d, find the degree of refining conducted at the productIOn sit e._ In addi- tion, pipelines must be provided to mo,'e the oil either to existing trunk pipelmes or to a market area. 'Vhile the minimum investment for economical production cost is high, the unit investment seems reasonable compared with current ex['loration and development costs for petroleum. One estimator (4,) places the investment in new "nd replacement pet,ro]eum produc. tive capacity in the United States between 19.15 and 1960 at $7.500 per daily barrel. Shale oil capacity certainly is less tha,n this figure. Why no commercial shale oil production.? Since the lifting of 'World War II restrictions, there has been no shortage of petroleum products for the American consumer. Until 1948, the Umted States produced more oil than it conslUned and was a net exporter of petroleum and petroleum products. As foreig'n crude oil became available in quantity at low cost, we haye gradually increased imports lmtil, on bala.nce, we are a net importer to the extent of 10 to 20 percent of our petroleum demand. Shale oil is not being produced commercially because there is no nmrket for additional 011 supplies. The Nation",] Petroleum COlmcil est.imates that we now could incren.Re petroleum production from preC\- ent,. sources by at least 2 million barrels per day, were there a market. ThlS production is available with little additional investment, but it cannot compete with foreign imports. 9wing to shale oil's large inItial investment and t.he necessity t.o utIlize llew technology~ production on a commereinl basis wiJI begin only when presently deve.loped petroleum product';,:" capacity is being used to. ~he ma.xlIllum practIcal extent and there 1:; protection from c.ompetltlOn by Imported oil. G-I'owth of th.e shfde j,m1w.;I-I'Y (liteI' 10';',-; 'Vhile the water requirements for the expnllsion of the indust.ry a.fter HI75 nre not. eOllsidered in this report, it should not he implied that growt.h will stop at this point.