WSP08553 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 002102 Therefore, some decisions as to the future likelihood of an event may have been made on the basis of an immediate judgement by an expert in the field, while other decisions have been the focus of months of research, discussion, and modification. The degree of attention focused on a decision area was a function of the importance that the potential impact of a data point might have on the results of the study. Thus, crop prices (B-2 and B-7), irrigation efficiency (B-3 and B-7), energy prices (B-8), crop yields (B-7), and water availability (A-3a and B-3) became the focus of significant in- vestigative and analytic effort. The variance in effort devoted to projecting each of the data points is evident when reading the various B element and state reports. While equal attention to all LP inputs might have been desirable if the funds and time had been available, the overall study conclusions ~ou1d not be exoected to chanqe as a re- o _ sult of any increased precision I'lhich might have been attained from de- voting equal time to all model inputs. Typically the approach used to develop the data points was as follows: Historical data was gathered for a particular input component (e.g., yields, labor rates). Either the General Contractor or the states were given the responsibility to develop this information into a projection for each of the study time periods. Various projection techniques were used ranging from multiple regressions (yields) and simultaneous equations (crop prices) to judgemental extrapolations. The results were forwarded to all persons involved in the A-1/B-7 research for review. Periodically meetings were held between the 7 Arthur 0 Little.loe