WSP08553

• File Number: 8407
• Description: Platte River Basin - River Basin General Publications
• State: CO
• Basin: South Platte
• Water Division: 1
• Date: 1/1/1982
• Author: Arthur D Little Inc
• Title: Six State High Plains-Ogallala Aquifer Regional Resources Study - Study Element B-7 - Summary of Factors Used in Calculating Farm Level Production Costs and Revenues
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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0G2101

II. GENERAL APPROACH

Developing and providing the necessary data inputs for the six

state LP models was a massive undertaking especially since, unlike the

input-output models used by the states, no appropriate statewide LP

models existed at the study's initiation. An understanding of the

magnitude of the task can be gained from the following: simp'ly

estimating the returns by crop in each of the study subregions required

the projection, estimation, or assumption of over 20,000 data points,

data points in an unknown futur~ not ones obtainable from existing

statistics. The number is understandable when it is realized that

there were 21 subregions, four time periods (1985, 1990, 2000, 2020),

different soil types, different aquifer conditions, approximately
eight inputs for each of at least six major and several minor crops, four
different irrigation ETs*with different yields and inputs, prices for
all inputs in all time periods, prices for all farm commodities in an

time periods. This 20,000 plus number does not include all the con-

straints required in an LP model so that it better reflects reality.

It should be obvious from the preceding that the option did not exist

for developing complex or sophisticated models for projecting all the

necessary data inputs for the LP models. In fact, the overall study

guidelines recommended that the analytic work be based on existing

model s and research rather than be the bas is for conducting new bas i c
research and investigations (except as to the management strategy
analysis which was the purpose of the study). Thus, the state researchers
and General Contractor focused the majority of their projection, esti-

mation, or assumption activities on what were felt to be the most

important of the data points required by the LP models.

* Eva~otranspiration 1eve1s--percentage of the full water (for evapotranspiration)
requil'ement of the plant which is actually delivered by an irrigation system.

6

Arthur D Little. Joe