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11.1 <br />No- Breach Model Results .................................................................................... <br />.............................28 <br />11.2 <br />Dam Breach Model Results .................................................................................. <br />.............................31 <br />11.3 <br />Flood Volumes ..................................................................................................... <br />.............................34 <br />11.4 <br />Incremental Impacts Analysis .............................................................................. <br />.............................35 <br />12 <br />DISCUSSION OF OBSERVED DAMAGES and POTENTIAL CAUSES <br />............................ .............................38 <br />12.1 <br />Observed Damage ............................................................................................... <br />.............................38 <br />12.2 <br />Modeling Limitations ........................................................................................... <br />.............................40 <br />12.3 <br />Possible Causes of Events not Captured in the Modeling ................................... <br />.............................42 <br />13 <br />COMPARISON WITH PAST LITTLE THOMPSON RIVER FLOODS ............................... <br />.............................42 <br />14 <br />CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................... <br />.............................46 <br />15 <br />ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................ <br />.............................47 <br />16 <br />REFERENCES ............................................................................................................. <br />.............................48 <br />LIST OF FIGURES <br />Figure 1— Map of Study Area of September 8 -18, 2013 flooding on the Little Thompson River <br />Figure 2 — Map of total rainfall from September 8 -18, 2013 Storm <br />Figure 3 — Map of overall drainage basin included in this study. <br />Figure 4 —A Pre -Flood Aerial Image Map showing the Big Elk Meadows Association dams. <br />Figure 5 - Photo taken at 6:47 a.m. Sept. 12th, 2013 at the location of the CR 47 Culverts <br />Figure 6 —An aerial photo of Crow Lane No. 1 dam in Pinewood Springs, CO <br />Figure 7 —A Post -flood aerial photo of the Big Elk Meadows dams <br />Figure 8 — Gage- Adjusted Radar Rainfall analysis results for the Little Thompson River study area <br />Figure 9 - Sunset Dam breach looking across and downstream from left abutment. <br />Figure 10 - Rainbow Dam breach section viewed from left abutment. <br />Figure 11- Willow Dam breach looking downstream from within the reservoir on left abutment. <br />Figure 12 - Mirror Dam breach looking downstream from the left abutment. <br />Figure 13 — Panorama of the Meadow Lake Dam breach looking downstream <br />Figure 14 - Typical high water mark debris line on a slope adjacent to the dam. <br />Figure 15 - Example of bent grass line from overtopping flow. <br />Figure 16 - Map showing locations of peak flows estimated using indirect methods. <br />Figure 17 - Map of basin delineation for rainfall -runoff modeling <br />Figure 18 - Map of Big Elk Meadows Dams subbasin delineation for rainfall -runoff modeling. <br />Figure 19 — Temporal distribution of the gage- adjusted radar rainfall <br />Figure 20— No Breach Model Hydrographs at Calibration Sections <br />Figure 21— No Breach model outflow hydrographs for contributing basins <br />Figure 22 — Breach model outflow hydrographs at Big Elk Meadows dams <br />Figure 23 — Breach model outflow hydrographs at calibration sections. <br />Figure 24 — Peak flow stage analysis at below Meadow Lake dam calibration section. <br />Report of the September 2013 Little Thompson River Flooding COLORADO <br />and Big Elk Meadows Dam Failures, June 2014 (Revised, Dec 2014) Division of Water Resources <br />iv -: - . <br />DAM SAFETY BRANCH <br />