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JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION <br />Vol´┐Ż#S, No: '' AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION August 2009 <br />DROUGHT RESILIENCE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY <br />SURFACE- GROUND - WATER - CONVEYANCE SYSTEM' <br />Norman L. Miller, Larry L. Dale, Charles F. Brush, Sebastian D. Vicuna, <br />Tariq N. Kadir, Emin C. Dogrul, and Francis L Chung <br />ABSTRACT: A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer <br />applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a <br />range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping <br />patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts rang- <br />ing between 25 and 50 %, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic <br />subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results <br />suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and <br />are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70 %. <br />Stream -to- aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was <br />the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios <br />the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30 -year model - simulated future. However, the overall response <br />to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground -water insurance <br />to sustain California during extended dry periods. <br />(KEY TERMS: drought simulation; surface - ground -water response; pumping.) <br />Miller, Norman L., Larry L. Dale, Charles F. Brush, Sebastian D. Vicuna, Tariq N. Kadir, Emin C. Dogrul, and <br />Francis I. Chung, 2009. Drought Resilience of the California Central Valley Surface - Ground - Water- Conveyance <br />System. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(4):857 -866. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752- <br />1688.2009.00329.x <br />INTRODUCTION <br />The western United States (U.S.) has experienced <br />periods of long drought conditions since the last <br />glacial epoch 11,000 years ago. The period between <br />900 and 1400 A.D. was a time when severe long - <br />duration droughts occurred in the western U.S. (Cook <br />et al., 2004). This medieval mega- drought period was <br />followed by a less severe drought period that was <br />'Paper No. JAWRA -08- 0063 -P of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). Received April 9, 2008; accepted <br />January 15, 2009. © 2009 American Water Resources Association. Discussions are open until six months from print publication. <br />2 Respectively, Staff Scientist and Adjunct Professor (Miller), Climate Science Department, Berkeley National Laboratory and Geography <br />Department, University of California, Berkeley, California 90 -1116, One Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California 94720; Staff Scientist (Dale), <br />Energy Analysis Department, Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 90 -4000, One Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California; Water <br />Resources Engineer, Senior Engineer, Water Resources Engineer, Principal Engineer, (Brush, Kadir, Dogrul, Chung), Modeling Support <br />Branch, Bay -Delta Office, Department of Water Resources, 1416 9th Street, P.O. Box 942836, Sacramento, California 94236; and Graduate <br />Student (Vicuna), Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, Davis Hall, Berkeley, California <br />94720 (E- Mail/Miller: nlmiller @lbl.gov). <br />JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 857 JAWRA <br />