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<br /> <br /> <br /> <br />11 <br />Utah has published two updates to HMR 49: <br /> “2002 Update for Probable Maximum <br />Precipitation, Utah 72 Hour Estimates to 5,000 <br />sq. mi. - March 2003” (USUL) <br /> “Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates <br />for Short Duration, Small Area Storms in Utah - <br />October 1995” (USUS) <br />These augment, not supersede, HMR 49 and are <br />intended only for use in the state of Utah. <br />HMRs 55a, 49, and 57 provide precipitation values for <br />a local storm (thunderstorm) with 6 hours of duration <br />and a general storm with 72 hours of duration. The <br />results from both the general and local storm should <br />be used in hydrologic trials to determine the critical <br />design values. <br />The HMR methods require obtaining index <br />precipitation from maps, and then adjusting <br />precipitation depths for drainage area size, elevation, <br />and orographic effects specific to the watershed being <br />studied. <br />An alternative to the HMR documents for PMP <br />estimates is a site-specific analysis. Colorado has <br />developed an Extreme Precipitation Analysis Tool <br />(EPAT) and is currently conducting a formal 3rd party <br />meteorological peer review set for completion in April <br />2014. In general, a site-specific analysis is not readily <br />achievable for small dam owners and because it <br />typically requires a custom analysis by a consultant <br />engineer/meteorologist. <br />Conclusions <br />To determine design precipitation depths for <br />precipitation frequency events, NOAA Atlas 2 and/or <br />Atlas 14 are available (Montana also uses USGS WRI <br />Report 97-4004). NOAA Atlas 14 is an update and <br />supersedes NOAA Atlas 2 in Utah and Colorado, while <br />no update is currently planned for Montana or <br />Wyoming. One advantage of NOAA Atlas 14, the <br />precipitation depths can be easily obtained online <br />using NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server. <br />PMP estimates can be estimated using HMR methods. <br />Precipitation for both the local and general storms is <br />derived for hydrological evaluation. An alternative to <br />the HMR methods is a site-specific extreme <br />precipitation analysis. Site-specific analysis is not easily <br />achieved and typically requires a custom analysis by a <br />consultant engineer/meteorologist. <br />Selecting the design precipitation is the first step in the <br />hydrologic analysis used to size the dam and spillway. <br />If the dam and spillway are not sized appropriately, an <br />extreme precipitation event can lead to dam <br />overtopping and failure. As the recent precipitation <br />event in Colorado shows, large or rare precipitation <br />events can occur and when they do, the importance of <br />appropriately selecting the design precipitation for a <br />given dam is reinforced. <br />References (with Links where available) <br />Colorado Rules and Regulations for Dam Safety and Dam Construction, <br />January 01, 2007. <br />Colorado Launching Massive Emergency Dam Inspection Program, The <br />Denver Post, by David Olinger, September 23, 2013. <br />Montana Dam Safety Rules and Regulations, Rule 36.14.502 - Hydrologic <br />Standard for Emergency and Principal Spillways, November 5, 1999. <br />Regional Analysis of Annual Precipitation Maxima in Montana, USGS Water- <br />Resources Investigations Report: 97-4004, by Charles Parent, 1997. <br />Utah Requirements for the Design, Construction and Abandonment of <br />Dams, R655-11-4 Hydrologic Design, August 01, 2013. <br />Wyoming Surface Water Regulations and Instructions, Chapter 5 - <br />Reservoirs, 1977. <br />NOAA Data Links <br />Current NWS Precipitation Frequency Documents (Including NOAA Atlas 2 <br />and NOAA Atlas 14): <br /> http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/currentpf.htm <br />Current NWS Probable Maximum Precipitation Documents (Including HMR <br />55A, HMR 49, and HMR 47): <br />http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/studies/pmp.html <br />HDSC Exceedance Probability Analysis for Select Storm Events: <br />http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/index.html <br />Areal Reduction (Technical Paper No. 29): <br />http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/Technical_papers/TP29P4.pdf <br /> <br />