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Climate Change Continued mining, operation of mine surface facilities, and associated vehicle traffic, would result in minor cumulative contributions to the release of GHGs into the atmosphere. The BLM estimated the amount of GHG emissions that could be attributed to coal production as a result of the proposed lease. The mining, processing, and shipping of coal from the Deserado Mine would contribute to GHG emissions through carbon fuels used in mining (including fuel consumed by heavy equipment and stationary machinery), electricity used on site, methane released from mined coal, and electricity consumed by the rail transport of the coal. Policies regulating specific levels of significance have not yet been established for GHG emissions. Given the state of the science, it is not possible to associate specific actions with the specific global impacts such as potential climate effects. Since there are no tools available to quantify incremental climate changes associated with these GHG emissions, the analysis cannot reach conclusions as to the extent or significance of the emissions on global climate. To provide additional context, the EPA has recently modeled global climate change impacts from a model source emitting 20 percent more GHGs than a 150OMW coal -fired steam electric generating plant (approx. 14,132,586 metric tons per year of COZ, 273.6 metric tons per year of nitrous oxide, and 136.8 metric tons per year of methane). It estimated a hypothetical maximum mean global temperature value increase resulting from such a project. The results ranged from 0.00022 and 0.00035 degrees Celsius occurring approximately 50 years after the facility begins operation. The modeled changes are extremely small, and any downsizing of these results from the global scale would produce greater uncertainly in the predictions. The EPA concluded that even assuming such an increase in temperature could be downscaled to a particular location, it "would be too small to physically measure or detect ", see Letter from Robert J. Meyers, Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator, Office of Air and Radiation re: "Endangered Species Act and GHG Emitting Activities (Oct. 3, 2008). The project emissions are a fraction of the EPAs modeled source and are shorter in duration, and therefore it is reasonable to conclude that the project would have no measurable impact on the climate. If the regional climate change predictions outlined above are realized as mounting evidence suggests is already occurring, there could be impacts to resources within the region. For example, if global climate change results in a warmer and drier climate, increased particulate matter impacts could occur due to increased windblown dust from drier and less stable soils. Warmer temperatures with decreased snowfall could have an impact on a particular plants ability to sustain itself within its current range. An increased length of growing season in higher elevations could lead to a corresponding variation in vegetation and change in species composition. These types of changes would be most significant for special status plants that typically occupy a very specific ecological niche. Cool season plant species' spatial ranges are predicted to move north and to higher elevations, and extinction of endemic threatened or endangered plants may be accelerated. Invasive plant species would be more likely to out - compete native species. Increases in winter temperatures in the mountains could have impacts on traditional big game migration patterns. Due to loss of habitat, or due to competition from other species whose ranges may shift northward, the population of some animal species may be reduced. Warmer winters with less snow would impact the Canada lynx by removing a competitive advantage they have DOI- BLM -CO- 110 - 2012 - 0023 -EA 32