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Month <br />1966- 2006 Cripple Creek Data <br />PAR -1 Model Results <br />Average (in) <br />St Dev (in) <br />Average (in) <br />St Dev (in) <br />Jan <br />0.63 <br />0.46 <br />0.63 <br />0.42 <br />Feb <br />0.53 <br />0.20 <br />0.55 <br />0.17 <br />Mar <br />1.16 <br />0.82 <br />1.31 <br />0.72 <br />Apr <br />1.29 <br />0.89 <br />1.40 <br />0.89 <br />May <br />1.53 <br />0.90 <br />1.63 <br />0.80 <br />Jun <br />1.84 <br />1.07 <br />1.84 <br />1.09 <br />Jul <br />4.12 <br />2.05 <br />4.27 <br />2.00 <br />Aug <br />3.68 <br />1.21 <br />3.54 <br />1.27 <br />Sep <br />1.50 <br />0.62 <br />1.52 <br />0.41 <br />Oct <br />1.06 <br />0.69 <br />1.10 <br />0.62 <br />Nov <br />0.60 <br />0.44 <br />0.60 <br />0.41 <br />Dec <br />0.51 <br />0.34 <br />0.51 <br />0.31 <br />Total _ <br />18.44 <br />NA <br />18.90 <br />NA <br />Annual Exceedance <br />Probability ( %) <br />Site Precipitation <br />(inches) <br />PAR -1 Model <br />Precipitation (inches) <br />25.6 <br />1% <br />N/A <br />5% <br />26.46 <br />23.9 <br />25% <br />19.54 <br />21.3 <br />50% <br />18.19 <br />18.7 <br />75% <br />15.70 <br />16.4 <br />95% <br />10.48 <br />13.4 <br />99% <br />N/A <br />11.0 <br />Cripple Creek Precipitation <br />Ecological Resource Consultants, Inc. <br />Table 3. Comparison of Average Monthly Precipitation and Standard <br />Deviations for Cripple Creek Data and PAR -1 Model Results. <br />Table 3 indicates that the averages and standard deviations of the 1966 - 2006 <br />Cripple Creek data are preserved by the PAR -1 model. Replication of actual data <br />will help to ensure that the water balance model results accurately depict the full <br />range of likely outcomes. Precipitation averages determined from the PAR -1 <br />model results are anticipated to be slightly greater than observed data. This is <br />characteristic of PAR -1 models, and results from omitting negative precipitation <br />values calculated by the model and replacing them with zero. ERC considers the <br />PAR -1 model to accurately represent observed Cripple Creek precipitation data. <br />A comparison of annual precipitation exceedance probabilities for the 1966- 2006 <br />synthetic and observed annual rainfall with 100 years of synthetic precipitation <br />generated by the PAR -1 model is presented in Table 4. <br />Table 4. Annual Exceedance Probabilities for Site and ERC Modeled <br />Precipitation <br />5 <br />