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• <br />• <br />• <br />Subsidence Prediction Based on Measurements <br />Appendix A at West Elk Mine Page 3 <br />The near surface zone, which typically consists of weathered bedrock, colluvium, alluvium, and <br />soil a few feet to a few tens of feet thick, may deform differently than the underlying bedrock <br />(Figure A). Field studies by the author indicate that near - surface colluvium and alluvium, which <br />consist of predominantly clay and silt, can undergo significantly more extension without <br />rupturing than can the underlying material. In both the Somerset, Colorado and Sheridan, <br />Wyoming areas colluvium and alluvium 5 to 10 feet thick were observed to cover cracks as much <br />as 10 to 14 inches wide such that there was no indication of the underlying ruptures. <br />The zone of continuous deformation, which is transitional to the overlying near - surface zone and <br />also to the underlying zone of fracturing, undergoes differential vertical lowering and flexure as <br />laterally- constrained plates (in three dimensions) or beams (in two dimensions). With flexure, <br />shear occurs at the boundaries of rock units with different strength and stiffness characteristics, <br />such as sandstones and shales. Zones of tension above the neutral surfaces of rock units, for <br />example, become compressive above the boundary with other rock units and below their neutral <br />surface (Figure A, Enlargement 2). Any cracks, therefore, which occur in the tension zone of a <br />rock unit, terminate at the neutral surface, because the unit is in compression below this point. <br />Vertical and Horizontal Displacement, Tilt, and Horizontal Strain <br />Differential vertical lowering (downwarping) of the continuous deformation and near surface <br />zones causes vertical displacement (S), tilt (M), and horizontal strain (E). In flat or gently <br />sloping terrain (slopes less than about 30 percent), surface profiles of subsidence depressions are <br />similar to flexure of fixed -end, laterally constrained beams. Tensile stresses are present in areas <br />of positive curvature, but become zero downward at the neutral surface, then reverse to become <br />compressive stresses below the neutral surface. <br />In flat or gently sloping terrain, vertical displacement typically increases inward from the limit of <br />the subsidence depression, is half the maximum value at the point of inflection (S /2, Figure B), <br />and is maximum in the middle of the depression (also called subsidence basin or subsidence <br />trough). Horizontal displacement and tilt increase inward from the margin of the depression to a <br />maximum at the point of inflection and become zero again at the point of maximum vertical <br />displacement (Figure B). Maximum values of tilt, curvature, and strain, discussed herein, apply <br />to slopes less than about 30 percent; values may be greater on slopes steeper than 30 percent. <br />Positive curvature (convex upward) and horizontal tensile strain increase inward from the margin <br />of the depression to a maximum about midway between the depression margin and the point of <br />inflection and decrease to zero again at the point of inflection. Negative curvature (concave <br />upward) and compressive horizontal strain increase inward from the point of inflection to a <br />maximum about midway between the point of inflection and the point of maximum vertical <br />displacement and decrease to zero again at the point of maximum vertical displacement. <br />Maximum Vertical Displacement (Subsidence) <br />The following range of vertical displacements (subsidence values) are projected for the South of <br />Divide mining area, based on the baseline data obtained from subsidence measurements above <br />831 - 032.690 Wright Water Engineers, Inc. <br />