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Subsidence Evaluation for the <br />Exhibit 60E South of Divide and Dry Fork Mining Areas Page 14 <br />• • Panels El to E8: For these eight panels, projected horizontal tensile strain ranges <br />from 0.004 to 0.022 (0.4 to 2.2 percent) where the planned coal extraction thickness is <br />8 feet; from 0.007 to 0.027 (0.7 to 2.7 percent) where the extraction thickness equals <br />12 feet; and from 0.007 to 0.039 (0.7 to 3.9 percent) where the extraction thickness <br />equals 14 feet. <br />Horizontal compressive strain ranges from -0.004 to -0.024 (44 to -2.4 percent) <br />where the extraction thickness equals 8 feet; -0.007 to -0.029 (47 to -2.9 percent) <br />where the thickness equals 12 feet; and -0.007 to -0.042 (47 to -4.2 percent) where it <br />equals 14 feet (Table 2). <br />• Panel E9: Predicted horizontal tensile strain in this single panel ranges from 0.018 to <br />0.027 (1.8 to 2.7 percent) where the coal extraction thickness equals 12 feet and 0.021 <br />to 0.031 (2.1 to 3.1 percent) where the extraction thickness equals 14 feet. <br />Compressive strain this panel is predicted to range from -0.018 to -0.029 (4.8 to -2.9 <br />percent) where the extraction thickness equals 12 feet and -0.021 to -0.034 ( -2.1 to <br />-3.4 percent) where it equals 14 feet (Table 2). <br />Da Fork Mining Area: Maximum tensile and compressive horizontal strains are calculated, <br />using the values obtained from the West Elk Mine area, and as projected in Figure 5 (Table 2). <br />These values are believed to be conservative, based on Dunrud's annual observations over the <br />last seven years in the Apache Rocks mining area. <br />• Panels E2 to E6: For the five panels that extend into the Dry Fork mining area, <br />projected horizontal tensile strain ranges from 0.007159 to 0.0085 (0.7 to 0.9 percent) <br />where the planned coal extraction thickness is 9 feet, and from 0.0040 to 0.014 (0.6 to <br />1.4 percent) where the extraction thickness equals 10 feet. <br />Horizontal compressive strain ranges from - 0.0071 to - 0.0092 (47 to -0.9 percent) where the <br />extraction thickness equals 9 feet, and - 0.0040 to -0.015 (44 to -1.5 percent) where the <br />thickness equals 10 feet (Table 3). <br />5.3.2 Maximum Projected Depths of Surface Cracks <br />Curvature, or differential tilt (curvature is the second derivative of vertical displacement with <br />respect to horizontal distance) of subsided rock layers causes horizontal strain. Comparison of <br />calculated curvature values and horizontal tensile strain derived from horizontal displacement <br />measurements, therefore, provides a means of calculating the depth of the neutral surface, and <br />hence the maximum depth of tension cracks from the surface. The neutral surface is the <br />boundary between tensile and compressive strain <br />In terrains with slopes less than about 30 percent, the depth of the neutral surface can be <br />estimated by dividing the maximum horizontal strain values by those of maximum curvature at a <br />given location. The calculated depth of the tension zone to the neutral surface -the boundary <br />between tension above and compression below -ranges from 50 to 100 feet in the subsidence <br />831 - 032.810 Wright Water Engineers, Inc. <br />