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• Table J2 <br />Predicted Future Landslide Movements <br />Probability of Occurrence <br />Based on Slope Stability Analysis <br />Movement <br />Outcome Factor of <br />Safety Prediction <br />Using 1997 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1998 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1999 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 2000 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 2001 <br />Conditions <br />Ra id F.S.<1.0 50% 13% 8% 8% <br />Slow 1.0<F.S.<7.2 33% 30% 25% 25% <br />Ve Slow 1.2<F.S.<1.5 16% 43% 50% 50% <br />Extreme) Slow F.S.>1.5 1% 14% 17% 17% <br />Table J3 <br />Predicted Future Landslide Movements <br />Probability of Occurrence <br />Based on LVC Classifications <br /> <br />Movement <br />Outcome LVC Prediction <br />Using 1997 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1998 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1999 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 2000 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 2001 <br />Conditions <br />Ra id LVC >3.5 20% 16% 4% 3% <br />Slow 2.5<LVC<3.5 44% 44% 35% 17% <br />Ve Slow 1.5<LVC<3.5 30% 33% 49% 60% <br />Extreme) Slow LVC<1.5 6% 7% 12% 20% <br />Table J4 <br />Predicted Future Landslide Movements <br />Using Bayes' Rule <br />with 2007 Probabilities from Slope Stability and LVC's <br />Movement <br />Outcome LVC <br />Prediction <br /> <br />(P1) Stability <br />Analysis <br />Prediction <br />(P2) Combined <br />Probability <br /> <br />(P1~P2) Revised <br />Probability by <br />Bayes' Rule <br />(1~ 2)~( 1~ 2) <br />Ra id % % 0.00 1 <br />Slow % % 0.0 11 <br />Ve Slow % % 0. 79% <br />Extreme) Slow % % 0.0 9% <br /> <br />• <br />