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ursday, I I July I')')6 J(>INT I'll <br />explosions oul at sea arc unhkcly to ercate ground accclcrutuns of a magniunlc and <br />duruuun which wvwld dislodge boulders, in annpnrisou with seismic risk.:1 minor <br />canhyuake is likely to precipitate a n+cktall. 'there i. nothing that we rm du about Ihut. <br />Thad is I'nr more likely a, prccipitatc n n+ckf:dl Ihnn tihruion from machmen• or <br />explosium nul at sea. <br />( 11 \IR end arc w•c in an carduluake risk ame" <br />Dr Baynes I;;\en-body is in an c:ulhyuake nsk vmc. It Is a matter ul• relative <br />risk. I hehc,c dt:u the snuly that we eununtssxntcd suggested that C'hristnuu Island w•as, <br />within Ihr Auslrthan context, in rc)atinly high srismieity and theretitrc a relatively high <br />risk. I hchrve than there arc more n»nor carthyuakcs li~h here than in other plnecs in <br />\ualydla liul ac happcncd at Vewcasllc. canhyuukcs hnppcn thruughuw :\ustraha <br />C"I1:\IK IYhich ntcam it wuulJ noI manor wh:u we did to mmnntse ur elunm;de <br />the existing risk, the reality is th;n a seismic event or hc;n•y rainfall is much more hkcly to <br />cause a disaster Ihnn am' of the presenl uccup:uional nldUtilrlal aeh\'lly' Ih:V OCeill'. <br />Ih- 12at ncs tics, that is correct. <br />11r FURKFal- lust to ti,llow up on that unc: a mayor carthyu;lkr of that namrr <br />is bkcly to cau.c hmliling damage ns „ell. Perhaps some of rite building experts could <br />ronuncnt. ~\n canhyuake that is ul a sire to cause a rucktall is probably going lu base <br />r;uurd some damage to huddings ,ntyway and possible nsk anJ casualties. Arc the <br />hnddings tcc hoer hero looking; of Jrsigned lur uny canhyuako activuy'' <br />~Ir 13atc Phe nu,ro rcrcnt buildings are designed to toke loads which will <br />acconunodu4• the seismic condhion. of the Ivpc that we ore discussing here lint some of <br />the older huildnuts arc dcslgncd on load-hcanng bnck+vork which wdl not take those <br />ground accclrr:uiuns, su you euuld get some of the older building; collapsing in the snrl <br />u( seismic activity Ih:u we are describing here. <br />~lr PORRL~I \re unns •ilt5 and -11' in th.u catccorv'! <br />11r lia4• Nu, they are I'rantrd antrwrcs. I'hcy are actually concrete t~:nncs. so <br />they :Ire Ics. likely to be .lamagcd than Ioad•hcaring brickwork 1'uu would ga damage on <br />the buildings. but they would not rullapsc. <br />11r RI('ll \KII 1':\ \\~ I)r liaync>, arc you able to drtennine with your cxpen <br />knot,Jrdgr uhrthcr Ihcrc a !css, greater ur no risk as compared to, >:ty 511 or Iltlt yeah <br />ago ,ailh boulders c/,nnm, du,sn" Is Ihrre grcntcr nsk now Ihnn there w•as• soy. 5n years <br />:tgti' <br />Dr li:tynes A lot has happcncd in thld IOU years. Ihcrc has Lx en ;cone impact on <br />I't'Ifl.h \1't)ItKti <br />