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Table H2 <br />Predicted Future Landslide Movements <br />Probability of Occurrence <br />Based on Slope Stability Analysis <br />Movement <br />Outcome Factor of <br />Safety Prediction <br />Using 1997 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1998 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1999 <br />Conditions <br />Ra id F.S.<1.0 50% 13% 8% <br />Slow 1.0<F.S.<1.2 33% 30% 25% <br />Ve Slow 1.2<F.S.<1.5 16% 43% 50% <br />Extremel Slow F.S.>1.5 1% 14% 17% <br />Table H3 <br />Predicted Future Landslide Movements <br />Probability of Occurrence <br />Based on LVC Classifications <br /> <br />Movement <br />Outcome LVC Prediction <br />Using 1997 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1998 <br />Conditions Prediction <br />Using 1999 <br />Conditions <br />Ra id LVC >3.5 20% 16% 4% <br />Slow 2.5<LVC<3.5 44% 44% 35% <br />Ve Slow 1.5<LVC<3.5 30% 33% 49% <br />Extremel Slow LVC<1.5 6% 7% 12% <br />Table H4 <br />Predicted Future Landslide Movements <br />Using Bayes' Rule <br />with 1999 Probabilities from Slope Stability and LVC's <br />Movement <br />Outcome LVC <br />Prediction <br /> <br />(P1) Stability <br />Analysis <br />Prediction <br />(P2) Combined <br />Probability <br /> <br />(P1'P2) Revised <br />Probability by <br />Bayes' Rule <br />(P1'P2)~(P1'P2) <br />Ra id 4% 8% 0.0032 1% <br />Slow 35% 25% 0.0875 25% <br />Ve Slow 49% 50% 0.2450 68% <br />Extremel Slow 12% 17% 0.0204 6% <br />~(P1'p2)= ~ 0.3561 ~ <br /> <br />