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<br />• <br />• <br />using Figure HS-12. Based upon the measured velocities, the following LVC's were assigned: <br />(1) Spring of 1997, LVC = 2.8 <br />(2) Spring of 1998, LVC= 2.7 <br />(3) Spring of 1999, LVC=2.3 <br />Coefficient of Variation of Velocity Class. The mean LVC was assumed to have a coefficient of variation <br />of 30 percent. <br />1997 Probabilities. Using the mean LVC of 2.8, assuming a normal distribution and a coefficient of <br />variation of 30%, the LVC values associated with the four movement outcomes were normalized, the azea <br />each condition occupied under the normal distribution curve was computed, and probabilities were <br />calculated for each expected outcome. Probabilities of outcomes using 1997 conditions are summarized in <br />Table H3, column 3. Computations of probabilities using LVC's aze provided in Appendix H5. <br />1998 Probabilities. Probabilities were revised based upon 1998 movement data and a mean LVC of 2.7. <br />The revised LVC outcomes were normalized against this new mean and the areas these values occupied <br />under the normal distribution curves were computed. These areas correspond with the probabilities <br />assigned to each outcome. Probabilities of outcomes using 1998 conditions are summarized in Table H3, <br />column 4. <br />1999 Probabilities. Probabilities were revised based upon 1999 movement data and a mean LVC of 2.3. <br />The revised LVC outcomes were normalized against [his new mean and the areas these values occupied <br />under the normal distribution curves were computed. These areas correspond with the probabilities <br />assigned to each outcome. Probabilities of outcomes using 1999 conditions are summarized in Table H3, <br />column 5. <br />H7.2.3 Probability Based Upon Bayes' Rule. <br />Bayes' Rule says that probabilities for outcomes can be revised based on additional information that is <br />Barr Engineering Company <br />PCDOCS1208220/CAK <br />July 31, 1999 <br />27 Appendix H <br />1999 Addendum to <br />1997198 landslide Coneetive Measures Report <br />