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Sanborn Creek Project Paqe 10 August 21, 1992 <br />• height, at the elevation of the "C" Seam, for a total mining height <br />of 20 feet. It was further conservatively assumed that the <br />worst-case 99 percent confidence shale distribution of 96.5 <br />percent, presented in Table 1, between the "E" and "C" Seams was <br />present, when the actual 99 percent worst-case shale distribution <br />between the "D" and "C" Seams is only 84.8 percent. The 33 percent <br />free swell for shale and 67 percent free swell for sandstone, from <br />Table 2, was used to calculate the weighted average free swell and <br />then to predict the collapse height of 175 feet, as follows: <br />Weighted average percent free swell <br />96.5 x 33$ = 3184.5 <br />3.5 X 67$ = 234.5 <br />100.0 3419.0 / 100 = 34.2$ <br />Conical chimney collapse height (H) <br />H = 3h(100)/$S h - mining height (20 feet) <br />H = 3(20)(100)/34.2 $S - percent free swell (34.2$) <br />H = 175 feet <br />The 99 percent minimum confidence interburden thickness <br />between the "C" Seam and the "D" Seam is 180 feet. Therefore, it <br />is extremely unlikely that chimney collapse will penetrate the <br />• interburden between the underlying "C" Seam and the overlying "D" <br />Seam. <br />Gray, Bruhn and Truka (1977) physically documented the height <br />of collapse chimney subsidence above the Pittsburgh Seam for 127 <br />cases. Their compilation of the height of collapse chimneys was <br />doubtless conservative because all their cases breached the ground <br />surface. Surface weathering no doubt weakened the rock through <br />which these chimneys developed, more than would be the case for <br />fresh rock underground. Gray, et al reported chimney subsidence <br />height without respect to the actual mining height or the <br />lithology. One of the 127 cases breached the ground surface 200 <br />feet above the Pittsburgh Seam. Table 3 and Figure 3 present the <br />relative cumulative frequency distribution for their data. Their <br />Pittsburgh Seam based cumulative probability of an uncontrolled <br />chimney penetrating through the average approximately 44 feet of <br />interburden between the "B" and "C" Seams is 34 percent. Gray's <br />(1977) chimney data from the Pittsburgh Seam also indicates that a <br />chimney has a minor, approximately 0.8 percent, potential to <br />penetrate the approximate 190 feet of interburden between the "C" <br />Seam and the "D" Seam and essentially no probability of penetrating <br />the approximatelt 340 feet between the "C" and "E" Seams. <br />The US Bureau of Mines (USBM) provides conservative guidelines <br />for room and pillar mining beneath bodies of surface water and <br />• flooded underground mines, information Circular 8741 (1977). The <br />USBM guidelines were based on prior work by Moore and Nawrocki <br />