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FROM : r11'ER9 DSGT1 ENG~MINES GROUP INC PHONE N0. 7029332413 Nw. 20 1??% 06:39G1M P4 <br />respectively. 1 would tend to believe the later projections for 27 and 28 at this point in <br />time. <br />Looking at the inverse Velocity figure for the B plans only, there aze numerous stations <br />with predicted failure dates in the range of Fcbrvary 1998 to September 1998. Of greatest <br />concern would be sites 11, 17, and Z2. Sites 5 and 29 aze projected to fail during the dry <br />part of [he yeaz and would likely e.~ctend into the following spring of 1999. Stations I6 <br />and 27 show protected failure dates that aze either preceding the cturrnt date or due rg <br />the next few weeks. 27 has been impeded by the bumas and would likely be delayed <br />significargly and station 16 would appear to be an anomaly. A review of the Logarithmic <br />Displacement Velocity plot for B planes only shows a more realistic projection for <br />station 16 and also shows 27 to be extended to June of 2000. The plot on this figure <br />shows a rotatively consistent band that projects failure dates ragging from June of 2000 <br />to Octobrr of 2004 (assuming nothing is done to alter the current rates of displacement <br />and acceleration). i believe thex later projections to be more realistic for the B type <br />planes. <br />Inverse Velocity. plots for C planes only shows two stations (= and I1) with immanent <br />failure dates. How~wer again, on the Logarithmic Displacement Velocity plots for C <br />planes only, stations 3 and 11 show failure dates of April 2000 and September 2001 <br />respectively. For these slow, creeping type of displacements I believe the later projection <br />procedure to lx the more realistic predictor. Projected failure dates at other stations for <br />the C type plants show dates as long as Junc of 2002 (assuming nothing is done to alter <br />the cumegt rates of dtsplacemerrt and acceleration). <br />Of course the on going mitigation efforts will in fact alter the displacement and <br />acceleration rates on the landslide crass and their impact should be seen in the post <br />implementation monitoring data. <br />I hops this has provide you with the information you required A more complete <br />trestme~ of the updated review of the monitoring data will be provided in a subsequem <br />rtport. in the meantime, should you have any questions, please call. <br />Regards, <br />MYERS DESIGN ENGINEERING, tNC. <br />Kenneth L. Mye . E. <br />Principal <br />