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1 2-0d-1997 9: 07 AF1 FROt4 ENG. VrEST ELf: t4 i NE 970 g?95050 P. 12 <br />FROH trrt3~5 DSGN Er+G~ntriES GROUP INC PNpt.IE NO. 7033332atS NCV. 20 1°97 @5:3gpn pa <br />respectively. 1 would tend to believe the later projections for 27 and 28 at this point in <br />tlmC. <br />Looking at the inverse Velocin• 5gurc for the B planes only, there aze numerous stations <br />~ with predicted failure dates in the range ofFcbrvary 1998 to September 1998. Of greatest <br />concern would be sites 11, 17, and 22. Si-es 5 and 29 are projected to fail druing the dry <br />part of the year and would likely extend into the following spring of 1999. Stations 16 <br />and 27 show projected failure dates that arc either preceding the current date or due in <br />the next few weeks. 27 has bern impacted by the 6utttcss and would likely be delayed <br />si~ificazrtly and station 16 would appear to be as anomaly. A review of the logarithmic <br />Displacement Velocity plot for B planes only shows a more realistic projection for <br />station 16 and also shows 27 to be extended m June of 2000. ?he plot on this figure <br />shows a relatively consistent band that projects failure dates taagag from June of 2000 <br />to October of 2004 (assuming nothing is done to ahe[ tht currertt rates of displacetnectt <br />sad acceleration). i believe these later projections to be more realistic for the ]i type <br />plants. <br />Inverse velocity. pints for C planes only shows two stations (5 and 11) with immanent <br />failure dates. However again, on the Loganthmic Displacement Velocity plots for C <br />planes only, stations 3 and l l show failure dates of April 2000 and September ?001 <br />respectively. For these slow, cttepino type of disptacemeats I believe the later projection <br />procedure to be the more realistic predictor. Yrojeded failure darts at other stations for <br />the C type planes show dates as long as Junc of 2002 (assuming nothing is done to alter <br />the tomcat rata of displacement and acceleration). <br />Of course the on going mitigation eftbrts will in fact alter the displacement and <br />acceleration rates on the landslide laass and their impact should be sern in the post <br />implementation monitoring data. <br />I hope this has provide you with the information you requited. A more complete <br />tteatmettt of the updated review of the monitoring data will be provided in a subsequem <br />ttport. in the meantime, should yo„ have airy questions. please call. <br />Regards, <br />MYEItS DESIGN ENGINEERING, INC. <br />/~~~ <br />Kemeth L. Mye . E. <br />Principal <br />s <br />