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15, 1998 • 7 • 983-2348.135 <br />For the contribution from the Oil Creek fault, the ground motion is influenced by <br />earthquakes in the entire magnitude range from moment magnitude Mw 5.0 to Mw 6.8 <br />(the MCE), although about 50 percent of the PGA appeazs to be from the magnitude <br />range of Mw 5.0-5.5 and the remaining 50 percent from Mw 5.5-6.8. <br />For comparison, the U.S. Geological Survey (1996) would predict a PGA of 0.04 g for the <br />same 475-yeaz return period, and Algermissen et al (1990) would predict a PGA of 0.02 g <br />(Figure 2). The higher PGAs for given return periods derived from this investigation, as <br />compazed to the U.S. Geological Survey (1996) and Algermissen et al (1990), aze believed <br />to be the result of the implementation of a systematic and comprehensive PSHA that <br />incorporates historical seismidty data as well paleoseismic data for identified <br />seismogenic faults in the development of the ground motions. Both the U.S. Geological <br />Survey (1996) and Algermissen et al (1990) appeaz to have primarily addressed the use of <br />historical seismicity data for the region of the site, with limited or no use of paleoseismic <br />data for active faults, in the development of their probabilistic PGA maps for this region. <br />Because the area is of low historical seismidty, and the earthquake record is short, and <br />thus incomplete (compared to the geologic or paleoseismic record), the overall seismic <br />hazard, in terms of ground motion maybe underestimated if only the historical <br />seismicity is considered. The use of paleoseismic data, in conjunction with historical <br />seismidty data, more completely characterizes the seismic hazard and thus accounts for <br />the higher PGAs. <br />CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br />The CC&V Project is located in a region of Colorado that generally has a low rate of <br />historical seismidty. In addition, although there aze 16 active and potentially active <br />seismogenic sources within 100 km (62 mi) of the project, their rates of tectonic activity <br />appear to also be low, and aze consistent with the appazentiy overall low rate of seismic <br />activity of the region. Together, these suggest that, compazed to other more active <br />regions of Colorado, and the western United States, the seismic hazard and expected <br />ground motions (PGAs) from future seismic activity in the vidnity and region of the site <br />should be low. <br />The closest potential seismogenic source to the project is the Oil Creek Eault that is <br />located about 8 km (5 mi) to the northeast. It is estimated to be capable of generating an <br />MCE of moment magnitude Mw 6.8, and it is estimated to have a slip rate of 0.027 <br />mm/yr. The Oil Creek fault tends to dominate the probabilistic earthquake ground <br />motions at the site because of its close proximity, relatively high MCE, and higher slip <br />rate compared to the other, neazby potential seismogenic sources. <br />The results of the systematic and comprehensive PSHA of this investigation indicate that <br />the PGAs at the CC&V site for a suite of return periods ranging from 100 yeazs to 2,500 <br />years are: <br />Golder Associates <br />