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<br />4.0 Summary <br />The calculations for probability of landslide outcomes are based upon a normal distribution of <br />factors that compaze the pre-correction condition with the post-correction condition. The estimated <br />landslide outcomes from the stability analyses may be refined with the predicted landslide <br />outcomes from the observed movement analyses using Bayes theorem. This refinement is shown <br />in Table 3. Measuring the observed movement over time increases the reliability of this prediction. <br />Also, other factors such as climitological events, other analyses such as FLAC or an individual <br />judgment, can be used to further refine the probabilities using Bayes theorem. <br />The comparison between pre-correction and post-correction is important because it provides a <br />reference and a subjective estimate of the probability for post-correction landslide outcomes and <br />the existing condition of the landslide. Most importantly, however, is that the existing condition <br />can be used as a basis for assessing future landslide outcomes with additional corrective measures <br />and future facility construction. <br />The current use of observational approach for landslide performance makes the prediction of the <br />• landslide outcomes more reliable over time as the actual measurements of movement aze recorded. <br />Additional methods of predicting landslide outcomes using climatological data, FLAC model results <br />and judgement will greatly enhance the reliability of the predictions. <br />~J <br />0626024\60558-llCET <br />