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<br />1.0 Introduction <br />The purpose of this report is to present the probable landslide outcomes for the existing condition. <br />The probable landslide outcomes were defined as rapid movement (non-correctable), slow <br />movement (requiring correction), very slow movement (requiring monitoring), and extremely slow <br />movement (essentially no movement). The probability calculations were based upon two <br />fundamental methods of evaluation, namely: (1) the calculated factor of safety; and (2) the <br />movement rates measured in the field. A comparison of these two probabilities is intended to <br />provide a reasonable estimate of the potential for different landslide outcomes for existing <br />conditions. Changes to the landslide, by either additional corrective measures or the construction <br />of additional facilities detrimental to the landslide movement, can be assessed based upon a <br />reasonable estimate of the existing condition. <br />Other methods of evaluating the probability of landslide outcomes not yet considered in this <br />analysis are based upon: (1) climatologic events, such as spring/fall, weddry climate cycles; etc. and <br />(2) FLAC model predictions. Both of these methods will become more reliable and more valuable <br />as a means of predicting landslide outcomes as the observations of movement and landslide <br />• performance continues. The period of measurements since correction activities is still relatively <br />C~ <br />short and refinement of the probability analyses for climitological events and the FLAC model <br />predictions is not included in this evaluation but may be used for long term predictions. <br />0626024\60558.1/CET 1 <br />