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• Appendix F presents the fast estimate of stability for the existing condition, using the calculated <br />factor of safety and the landslide velocity class as defined by measured velocities. These values will <br />be used as previous probabilities of stability and future data will be used to upgrade the probabilities <br />of stability. The probabilities should be upgraded annually and after the spring runoff. Table G-1 in <br />Appendix G is an example of how Bayes Theorem may be applied using expert judgement with <br />calculated probabilities of landslide outcomes. This table indicates that the potential for a <br />catastrophic movement that is uncorrectable is about five (5) percent, and the probability of slow <br />movement that may require remedial measures is about forty (40) percent. <br /> <br />The stability analyses, however, only addresses the overall stability of a massive landslide. It does <br />not address the localized sloughing that will occur as a result of groundwater from the bedrock- <br />colluvium interface. Further stabilization of these sloughs may be necessary and may include soldier <br />piles or buttressing. <br />• K:\06260Z4~58991_I.WPD/CAK to Revised September 2l, 1998 <br />