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<br />Memo to Tony Waldron <br />Bowie No. 2 Geotechnical Adequacy <br />page 5 <br /> <br />The preparer's SEH method application is correct for the case chosen. However, the case <br />chosen is neither the most geotechnically sensitive nor the highest projected subsidence <br />case for the Bowie No. 2 mine plan. As an exmple I performed an SEH method projection <br />of subsidence above proposed Panel 36. Panel 36 is of particular interest because it <br />occupies a situation roughly analogous to that of the 1st West and 2nd West panels of <br />the Bowie #1, which experienced signficant subsidence cracking due to an hypoithesized <br />outcrop barrier cantilever failure. Panel 36 is oriented with its long axis parallel to the <br />steep outcrop slope gradient. As such its driection of retreat will be into the slope, which <br />is the preferred orientation beneath a steep slope. The panel is 440 feet wide and <br />approximately 2,100 feet long. Its overburden ranges from slightly less than 300 feet at <br />its southern end to a high of approximately 815 feet about 200 feet south of its northern <br />extremity. As such Panel 36 underlies the steep slope outcrop area of concern for <br />possible poor quality coal burn effects and near surface chimney collpase potential. It <br />also underlies the historicaly and potentially unstable surface of the steep southern permit <br />area. <br />I completed a very rudimentary analysis of the projected maximum vertical subsidence for <br />two points along the long axial centerline of Panel 36. The first point was chosen to be <br />0.7 times the panel width from the southern end of the panel. The SEH generally projects <br />maximum subsidence above asub-critical width panel to be achieved at a distance from <br />the panel end equal or greater than 0.7 times the overburden depth. This condition is <br />first occurs in Panel 36 at a point 280 feet from the southern end of the panel, which <br />coincidentally has an overburden depth of approximately (122 meters) 400 feet (0.7 x <br />400' = 280'-. This point would be susceptible to the development of the maximum <br />projected vertical subsidence after the face had passed a location 1.4 times the <br />overburden depth from the southern end of the panel. Using figures 3 and 4 of the SEH <br />to project the maximum projected subsidence at this point results in a Subsidence Factor, <br />Sm,,, = 0.73 (figure 3), and a Subsidence Correction Factor, s/S = 0.7 (figure 41. <br />Multiplying these factors times one another and the extracted thickness of 12 feet results <br />in a projected maximum vertical subsidence of 0.73 x 0.7 x 12.0 feet = 6.1 feet. This <br />significantly larger than the maximum projected subsidence of 3.5 feet determined by the <br />preparer of Exhibit 15. Further, it is projected to occur beneath one of the permit area's <br />most geotechnically fragile areas. <br />The second point chosen for a rudimentary SEH subsidence projection is located on the <br />panel long axial centerline approximately 975 feet north of the southern panel extremity. <br />This point, with an overburden depth of approximately 550 feet (168 meters) is close to <br />*.he overall center of Panel 36. Using the same SEH graphical subsidence projection <br />methodology for this point results in a Subsidence Factor, STe% = 0.69 and a Subsience <br />Coreection Factor, s/S = 0.56. Multiplying these factors times one another and the <br />