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Case 1:20-bk-12043 Doc 281-1 Filed 08/26/20 Entered 08/26/20 10:01:13 Desc
<br />COAL TRADER I THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2020 Exhibit A Publications Page 27 of 35
<br />ERCOT real-time prices tamed so far,
<br />despite record peakload forecast
<br />■ Wind, solar show up on Aug. 13
<br />■ Triple -digit highs in several cities
<br />Houston—Real-time prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas
<br />footprint remained in the doldrums Aug. 13 afternoon, despite a
<br />forecast to hit a new record peakload, as wind and solar resources
<br />continued to produce enough to avoid scarcity conditions to arise.
<br />At the beginning of Aug. 13, ERCOT forecast the system to hit
<br />74,928 MW, thereby topping the 74,820 MW record ERCOT set Aug. 12,
<br />2019, but ERCOT later lowered Aug. 13 forecast peak to 74,850 MW, still
<br />above the record. As of about 3:30 pm CDT, the system's load showed
<br />73,449 MW.
<br />Around that same time, ERCOT showed wind producing 7,690 MW
<br />and solar resources producing 3,644 MW, and ERCOT's real-time hub
<br />average settlement point price was $38.34/MWh.
<br />ERCOT on Aug. 13 forecast the system's load to peak at 5 pm CDT
<br />Aug. 14 at 75,278 MW, with 5,365 MW of wind output and 3,515 MW of
<br />solar output.
<br />Day -ahead on -peak trading on Aug. 13 for delivery Aug. 14
<br />exceeded $400/MWh on the Intercontinental Exchange, according to
<br />Manan Ahuja, S&P Global Platts Analytics director of North American
<br />power.
<br />ERCOT'S WIND, SOLAR OUTPUT EFFECTS ON NET LOAD
<br />(GW)
<br />80 13 -Aug 7"- cs; :14 Aug -- Total load
<br />— Net load
<br />MW Solar
<br />60 ® Wind
<br />40
<br />20
<br />0
<br />6:00 12:00 18:00 24:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 24:00
<br />(hour ending)
<br />Source: ERCOT
<br />Using ERCOT's own Aug. 13 load, wind and solar forecasts, ERCOT's
<br />net load on Aug. 14 was slated to peak at 4 pm at 66,694 MW, which
<br />would typically only cause scarcity conditions if excessive unplanned
<br />outages also occur.
<br />In ERCOT's final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for
<br />this summer, issued in May, the grid operator forecast that the system
<br />would set a new record peak of 75,200 MW, with 82,199 MW of
<br />resources expected to be available, minus typical forced outages
<br />totaling 4,031 MW.
<br />"It really does look probable that ERCOT will set a record this week,
<br />given the extreme temperatures across the [independent system
<br />operator] this week," said Campbell Faulkner, senior vice president and
<br />chief data analyst at OTC Global Holdings, an interdealer commodity
<br />broker.
<br />O 2020 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 1 10
<br />"The COVID effect appears to be weaker than my prior
<br />assumptions as compared to the aggregate cooling demand in
<br />ERCOT," Faulkner said Aug. 13.
<br />Triple -digit temperatures prevail
<br />Texas is currently baking in extreme heat, with ERCOT issuing an
<br />Operating Condition Notice until Aug. 16. Dallas and San Antonio were
<br />forecast to have triple -digit high temperatures through Saturday, and
<br />Houston was forecast to have highs around 96 degrees F on those
<br />days, according to CustomWeather. Those cities typically all have highs
<br />in the mid-90s at this time of year.
<br />"The magic cocktail of coincident high temperatures (over 100 F) in
<br />all of the major metro areas, like we are seeing materialize, is always a
<br />precursor to a new peak demand;' said Joshua Rhodes, a research
<br />associate at the University of Texas' Webber Energy Group. "However,
<br />COVID is still a wild card that could temper demand across the state."
<br />Platts Analytics' Ahuja said, "The question of prices really boils
<br />down to what wind generation does during the peak hours."
<br />If ERCOT's wind generation fleet fails to produce, scarcity pricing
<br />mechanisms could cause a spike, but Ahuja said this is unlikely to
<br />make much difference in the possibility of development of new
<br />dispatchable generation in ERCOT.
<br />"It's not going to move the forward curves enough," Ahuja said.
<br />"We are still talking about the month of August being really weak
<br />compared with what expectations were ... around $140/MWh. We're
<br />probably going to figure an average below $60/MWh for the month of
<br />August."
<br />OTC Global Holdings' Faulkner said that any price spikes appear to
<br />.not spur nonrenewable investment in ERCOT, which on its face shows
<br />that the desirability of gas-fired peakers has dried up!
<br />— Humza Jomal and Mark Watson
<br />Deadline for Rhino Resource Partners' asset
<br />auction pushed back
<br />■ Coal producer's assets have been grouped into different classes
<br />■ Differs from usual bankruptcy auctions which include all assets
<br />Houston—The date to submit qualified bids for Rhino Resource
<br />Partners' asset auction has been moved to Aug. 21, and the date of the
<br />auction has been moved to Aug. 31, according to a court order issued
<br />Aug. 12.
<br />The bid deadline was previously scheduled for Aug. 19, and the
<br />auction was earlier scheduled for Aug. 25.
<br />Rhino filed for bankruptcy reorganization July 2 in the US
<br />Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Ohio, with approximately
<br />$162.1 million of liabilities, including $39.8 million in secured debt owed
<br />to its pre -bankruptcy lenders.
<br />The court -approved auction splits up the company's assets into six
<br />groups.
<br />Asset group one includes all accounts receivable and the inventory
<br />at four mining operations across Appalachia and Utah. Inventory does
<br />not include parts and supplies, such as fuel, explosives and batteries.
<br />
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