2018-06-01_REVISION - C1980007 (4)

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reasonably foreseeable mine plan that are demonstrably or likely to be untrue. For example, the SFEIS states: Site-specific locations of anticipated disturbance cannot be identified at the leasing stage due to the fact that a final mine plan has not been approved. As it is unknown where the MDWs and temporary roads would occur, it is reasonable to assume that the proportion of loss of vegetation associated with this activity would be equal to the proportion of existing vegetation types within the lease modification area(s). Id. at 229. It is no longer reasonable to rely on assumptions about what vegetation and habitat will be impacted when OSMRE a detailed proposal for which the agency is required to disclose the actual site-specific impacts under NEPA. OSMRE's duty to disclose the site-specific impacts of Arch's mining plan modification is made clear by the fact that a number of assumptions analyzed in the SFEIS appear to be wrong. Notably, the SFEIS relies on assumptions concerning impacts of road construction that appear to underestimate the mine's development and exploration plans. The SFEIS assumes: [A]pproximately 48 MDWs would be needed over the life of the lease modifications (44 on COC -1362, and 4 on COC -67232), corresponding to an estimated 48 acres of disturbance (making a conservative estimate requiring about 1 acre of disturbance per MDW pad; historically most MDW pads are 0.5 acres or less). Access roads associated with MDWs is estimated to be about 6.5 miles, corresponding to about 24 acres of disturbance assuming a 30 -foot wide average disturbance width. [... ] It is ... [also] assumed that any if any exploration drilling, staging areas, and ground water monitoring drill pads and access road construction are needed, they would utilize the same locations as those used for MDWs. Therefore, no additional surface use beyond that assumed above for MDWs will be analyzed in this document. Lease Modifications SFEIS at 90-91. See also id. at 174 (SFEIS assumes "72 total acres of vegetation disturbance would occur from mine operations over the life of the lease modifications [... ] Site-specific locations of anticipated disturbance cannot be identified at the leasing stage as a final mine plan has not been approved"). Here, the SFEIS's assumptions appear to be incorrect because there is little overlap between roads developed for exploration, and those proposed for MDW pad construction. Once Arch completes exploration, the company will likely propose mining further to the southwest, as anticipated in Arch's map of projected coal mine panels, requiring the construction of even more roads and MDWs. See Arch Coal, Map 51, E -Seam Projected Operations (Mar. 19, 2018), attached as Exhibit 6. It would appear that such construction could increase by at least 50% the number of drilling pads and road miles required to mine the Lease Modifications, which would exceed the footprint for exploration and mining roads and pads predicted in the SFEIS.