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CONSERVATION GROUPS’ COMMENTS <br />UNCOMPAHGRE FIELD OFFICE RMP AND DEIS <br />52 <br />reestablish forest cover and increase resiliency in green stands.”151 The Forest Service admits <br />that climate change is a key factor in both the ongoing spruce beetle epidemic and sudden aspen <br />decline, and predicts significant changes to forest structure over the next 44-84 years. <br /> <br /> The Final EIS states that “documented climate trends” are “creating conditions conducive <br />to beetle outbreaks” impacting spruce-fir forests.152 Relying on earlier studies, the Final EIS <br />concludes that the western U.S. will suffer a catastrophic loss of spruce-fir habitat in the next 45- <br />85 years due to climate change: <br />Results [of climate studies] projected a 47% drop in suitable spruce habitat in the <br />decade around 2060, and a 72% loss of spruce habitat by 2090. Only 23% of <br />habitat was expected to persist in place through 2100.153 <br /> The SBEADMR Final EIS looks specifically at the likely impacts of climate change on <br />spruce-fir forests within the GMUG National Forest as a result of climate change, and concludes <br />they will be similarly dramatic: <br />The Rehfeldt (2015) model (Figure 3) projects little remaining habitat for spruce <br />on the Uncompahgre Plateau, and substantial loss in the West Elk Mountains, east <br />of Grand Mesa, and south of the Black Canyon/Blue Mesa Reservoir. Much of the <br />Grand Mesa and low elevations elsewhere are in the threatened zone…. About <br />22% of the current spruce distribution is classified as lost and 58% is classified as <br />threatened, meaning that it is conceivable that 80% of current spruce distribution <br />may not continue into the next century.154 <br /> In addition to the impacts on spruce-fir forests, the Forest Service recognizes that climate <br />change is a key factor causing sudden aspen decline (SAD). <br />Due to expected increases in dry weather [attributable to climate change], <br />especially drought, more cases of SAD are expected. Suitability for aspen in the <br />Southern Rockies is expected to deteriorate rapidly through the rest of the <br />century. Rehfeldt’s (2015) bioclimatic model (Figure 4) and studies on climatic <br />change point to a complete loss of aspen in some lower-elevation sites and on <br />south slopes ….155 <br /> As with spruce forests, the Final EIS concludes that climate change will eliminate vast <br />swathes of aspen forest across the GMUG National Forest. <br /> 151 Id. 152 Id. at 7 (“several documented climate trends across the western United States [are] creating <br />conditions conducive to beetle outbreaks” including “[m]ore precipitation in the form of rain, <br />and less in the form of snow;” “[e]arlier peaks in streamflow; and “[e]arlier spring onset.” <br />“These climate patterns, together with disturbance such as windthrow and vast areas of <br />susceptible forest, are supporting huge [beetle] outbreaks across the landscape.”). <br />153 Id. at 9. 154 Id. at 10 (emphasis added). 155 Id. at 16.