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CONSERVATION GROUPS’ COMMENTS <br />UNCOMPAHGRE FIELD OFFICE RMP AND DEIS <br />12 <br />approximately 107 GtCO2 was emitted, averaging approximately 36 GtCO2 per year, which left <br />us at the start of 2016 with a carbon budget of only 850 GtCO2.34 These emissions were the <br />highest in human history and 60% higher than in 1990 (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Of <br />course, the Paris Agreement aim of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires adherence to a <br />more stringent carbon budget of only 400 GtCO2 from 2011 onward, of which about 250 GtCO2 <br />remained at the start of 2016.35 “With global annual emissions amounting to 36 GtCO2 in 2015, <br />scientists predict that at current rates global emissions will exceed the carbon budgets necessary <br />to stay under the 1.5°C target by 2021 and the 2°C target by 2036.36 <br /> <br />The potential carbon emissions from existing fossil fuel reserves—the known <br />belowground stock of extractable fossil fuels—considerably exceed both 2°C and 1.5°C of <br />warming. “Estimated total fossil carbon reserves exceed this remaining [carbon budget] by a <br />factor of 4 to 7.”37 “For the 2°C or 1.5°C limits, respectively 68% or 85% of reserves must <br />remain in the ground.”38 The reserves in currently operating oil and gas field alone, even with no <br />coal, would take the world beyond 1.5°C.39 <br /> <br />In order for the world to stay within a carbon budget consistent with Paris Agreement <br />goals—“holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre- <br />industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”40—significant <br />fossil fuel resources must remain in the ground. More specifically, to meet the target of 2°C, <br />globally “a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 percent of current coal reserves <br />should remain unused from 2010-2050.”41 Studies estimate that global coal, oil and gas <br />resources considered currently economically recoverable contain potential greenhouse gas <br /> <br />34 See Annual Global Carbon Emissions, available at: https://www.co2.earth/global-co2- <br />emissions; see also C. Le Quéré, et al., Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data (Dec. <br />2015) (attached as Exhibit 16). 35 Dustin Mulvaney, et al., Over-Leased: How Production Horizons of Already Leased Federal <br />Fossil Fuels Outlast Global Carbon Budgets, EcoShift Consulting (July 2016) (attached as <br />Exhibit 17) at 2 (citing Joeri Rogelj, et al., Difference between carbon budget estimates <br />unraveled, Nature Climate Change (2016) (attached as Exhibit 18). 36 Mulvaney at 2 (citing Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis <br />Center (2015), available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/). 37 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report at 63 (attached as Exhibit 5). 38 The Sky’s Limit at 6 (attached as Exhibit 9); see also Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows, <br />Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends, Phil. Trans. R. <br />Soc. (2008) (attached as Exhibit 19) (“to provide a 93% mid-value probability of not exceeding <br />2°C, the concentration (of atmospheric greenhouse gases) would need to be stabilized at or <br />below 350 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent (ppm CO2e)” compared to the current <br />level of ~485 ppm CO2e.). 39 The Sky’s Limit at 5, 17 (attached as Exhibit 9). 40 Paris Agreement at Art. 2 (attached as Exhibit 2). 41 Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when <br />limiting global warming to 2°C, Nature (Jan 2015) (attached as Exhibit 20).