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Therefore, if 2.0 cfs was measured at the upstream monitoring station, the regression <br />equation predicts that there should be a corresponding flow at the downstream monitoring <br />station of 1.91 cfs (y = (1.0031 X2.0) — 0.0989). Exhibit A -2 displays the calculated <br />regression equation and 95% confidence interval for the recorded data set. <br />Step 2. Calculate the 95% confidence interval for the baseline regression equation. <br />Continuing with this example, an upstream measurement of 2.0 cfs has a calculated range <br />of flows predicted for the downstream site, at the 95% confidence interval, of from 1.6 <br />cfs to 2.2 cfs. This means that there is a 95% probability that based upon the upstream <br />measurement of 2.0 cfs, the downstream measurements should fall within an expected <br />range of from 1.6 cfs to 2.2 cfs. <br />Step 3. Continue streamflow monitoring and check for compliance. Applicant will <br />continue to operate the two monitoring stations following the baseline period. Assume <br />that the average streamflow on July 1St at the upstream monitoring station was measured <br />at 2.0 cfs and further, the measured streamflow at the downstream monitoring station on <br />this same date was 1.1 cfs. The lower measurement falls outside (below) the expected <br />range of flows established at the 95% confidence interval (1.6 cfs to 2.2 cfs, see step 2). <br />If the downstream average daily flow remains outside of the confidence interval for five <br />(5) consecutive days, it is assumed that a stream depletion attributed to mining operations <br />has occurred. The exchange will be initiated. <br />Step 4. Calculate the exchange amount. The exchange amount = the difference <br />between the measured downstream flow that is below the expected range of values (1.1 <br />cfs in this example, see Step 3) and the expected flow at the downstream site as predicted <br />by the baseline regression equation (1.91 cfs, see Step 1). Thus, the exchange amount in <br />this example is calculated to be 0.81 cfs (1.91 cfs — 1.1 cfs). The Applicant will release <br />water from upstream storage in amount necessary such that the downstream gage <br />increases in flow from an average daily streamflow of 1.1 cfs to 1.91 cfs (includes <br />necessary transit losses, if any). At the same time, the Applicant may install the above <br />described pipeline and conveyance system within the reach for the purpose of reducing, <br />or eliminating, the volume of substitute supply that might otherwise be needed to <br />effectuate the proposed exchange. <br />