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Step 2: AssLvn PFMs to Screening Categories <br />After each potential failure mode was identified and preliminarily evaluated, it was assigned to a <br />screening category as summarized on Table 3. All Category I (Highlighted) and Category II <br />(Considered, but not Highlighted) potential failure modes were carried forward for quantitative <br />annualized failure probability estimation. <br />Table 3 PFMA Screening Categories <br />Category <br />Description <br />Definition <br />I <br />Highlighted <br />Those PFMs of greatest significance considering need for awareness, potential for <br />occurrence, magnitude of consequence and likelihood of adverse response. <br />Highlighted (Category 1) PFMs are those for which physical possibility is evident, <br />fundamental flaw or weakness is identified and conditions and events leading to <br />failure seemed reasonable and credible. Category l potential failure modes should be <br />carried forward into a risk analysis. Short -term emergency action -increased <br />monitoring or other interim risk reduction measures may be warranted while risk <br />estimates and documentation are being completed, <br />II <br />Considered, but <br />Category 11 PFMs are also considered credible, in that they are physically possible, <br />not Highlighted <br />but are not highlighted for one or more reasons. Category II potential failure modes <br />are judged to be of lesser significance and likelihood than Category I potential failure <br />modes. A PFM may be placed in Category II because there is no direct or indirect <br />evidence or any indication of problem development; the loading required to initiate the <br />potential adverse response is not as likely as for Category I; or the magnitude of <br />consequences is not as significant as Category I potential failure modes. These <br />potential failure modes are slgnifcant enough that they should be carried forward into <br />a risk anal sis, but do not appear to require immediate (short -term) action. <br />III <br />Insufficient <br />These PFMs to some degree lacked information sufficient to allow a confident <br />Information <br />judgment of significance. As a result, a dam safety investigative action or analyses <br />can be recommended. Because action is required before resolution, the need for this <br />action may also be highlighted. There is insufficient information to make a. judgment <br />on whether these PFMs should be carried forward for risk analysis (in which case <br />either, 1) risk estimates for different failure modes may help focus what information <br />will be most valuable in estimating the risks, or 4 a decision can be made to collect <br />and evaluate the data prior to beginning a risk analysis). Increased monitoring may <br />be an appropriate interim risk management activity while information is being <br />collected. <br />IV <br />Ruled Out <br />Candidate PFMs may be ruled out because the physical possibility does not exist, <br />information came to light which eliminated the concern that had generated the <br />development of the PFM, or the PFM is clearly so remote a possibility as to be non - <br />credible or not reasonable to postulate. These PFMs are clearly so remote that the <br />likelihood of failure is negligible, and hence do not need to be carried forward for risk <br />estimates. However, they still need to be documented along with the reasons they <br />are considered to be negligible risk contributors. Monitoring is likely not warranted for <br />these po tentia/failure modes. <br />San Luis Project Miller Geotechnical Consultants <br />Tailing Dam Data Report 37 February 2014 <br />